Celtics vs. Warriors Game 1 of the NBA Finals will be live tonight at 9 p.m. EST on ABC.
A few notes worth discussing for Game 1 tonight and player prop bets.
The Warriors are performing significantly better in the second half compared to the first half during the playoffs.
Stats provided by NBA.com
- In the second half, the Warriors are turning the ball over 5.8 times. This is down dramatically from nine turnovers per first half, the most in basketball with a minimum of seven playoff games played.
- They are also shooting 35.1 percent from three in the first half vs. 40.9 percent for the second half. Notably, there is no difference in field goal percentage.
The Celtics team defense takes a slight step back during the second half of games.
- The Celtics’ defense is phenomenal. However, during the first half, they are nearly the best in the NBA’s defensive rating (100.6). It gets slightly worse in the second half, dropping to fourth in the playoffs at 109.9.
Marcus Smart plays well against Stephen Curry
- Curry is shooting just 29 percent from the floor when guarded by Marcus Smart. The Warriors’ offensive rating plummets to 85 when Smart is the primary defender on Curry. Stat courtesy of Second Spectrum.
For reference, the Warriors’ offensive rating is 116.1 during the playoffs (best among all teams) and was 112.1 during the regular season (16th in the NBA).
NBA Finals Game 1 Celtics vs. Warriors odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: BOS +3.5 (-105) vs. GSW -3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: BOS (+140) vs. GSW (-165)
Total: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)
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Celtics vs. Warriors Game 1 NBA Finals player prop bets
Best bet: Draymond Green 8+ assists +245 (DraftKings)
Draymond in the NBA Finals, this is time to play facilitator. Green had nine assists in his last game and was over in four out of 11 games during the first two series of the playoffs. The Mavericks didn’t pose much of a threat, this series will be a major challenge for Golden State.
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Best bet: Marcus Smart 8+ rebounds +800 (FanDuel)
Marcus Smart, over this number in two of five games played last series, is being disrespected for his rebounding prowess. He is not the healthiest player on the Celtics but he did get some rest these last few weeks and should not be 8:1 to hit this prop. Even without being in the best health, he was over in Game 7 against the Heat.
Smart 10+ rebounds is inexplicably +2800 on Bet365 if you are looking for even juicier odds. He has not done it yet these playoffs but it’s worth a flyer, other books have it at +1800.
Best bet: Jordan Poole ‘over’ 2.5 rebounds -123 — BetRivers
A very small projection here from oddsmakers. Perhaps the thought is that he will be hunted on defense and potentially moved off the court. However, there is a different thought process worth noting here. If Poole is going to be playing a lot of on-ball defense, it would theoretically free him up for rebounds off of misses.
Poole was over in two out of five games in the last series and ‘over’ in 10 of 16 total playoff games.