Despite a dominant start to the Stanley Cup Final by the Colorado Avalanche, bookmakers are having a tough time separating the Avs and Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 3 at Amalie Arena. Monday’s contest is currently lined as a pick’em across the betting market, meaning it could be the first game of the postseason that the Avalanche do not close as the betting favorite.
With the game lined so tight, bettors looking for action may want to take a deeper look at props for Game 3. Here are a few that could provide value:
Stanley Cup Final Game 3 prop bets
Under 1.5 Goals in First Period (-104) FanDuel
The Lightning can’t keep up with the Avalanche in a wide-open game. We knew that going into the series, but Colorado left no doubt through the first two games. In a pair of wide open games in Denver, the Avs outscored Tampa 11-3 overall and 7-3 at even strength, and made the two-time defending champs look very sluggish in the process.
To get back into the series, the Lightning will need to establish a more suitable tempo right out of the gates. One of the reasons that Colorado has looked so good through the first two games is that the Avs have been able to get on the scoreboard early in both contests. Colorado scored three goals in each of the first two games, which forced Tampa to chase the game and come out of its defensive structure.
While we can expect a push from Tampa to start Game 3, it would not be surprising to see the Bolts pack the neutral zone right from the opening puck drop. The Lightning need to do everything they can to avoid putting themselves in an early hole, so a tight first period seems like a sensible bet to make.
First Period Correct Score: Tampa Bay -1 (+420, Caesars)
If you are buying into the theory that the Lightning will do everything they can to establish a slower pace for Game 3, a play on Tampa to skate into the first period with a 1-0 lead at +420 seems like a good punt.
Down 2-0 and playing their first home game of the Stanley Cup Final, the Bolts should be sharp out of the gates as they look to get their first lead of the series. Thus, it seems pretty unlikely that we’ll see a third consecutive wild opening period in this series as the Lightning will do everything in their power to keep Colorado from running away with the game.
If the first period is sluggish, a 1-0 lead for Tampa is one of the likeliest outcomes as the Bolts would be more apt to nurse that advantage into the intermission than the Avs, who, if they score first, would want to continue pushing the pace in order to open things up further.
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Will the game go to overtime? Yes (+310) BetMGM
It’s no secret that the Lightning are most comfortable playing in tight, low-event contests, but the Avalanche have shown they’re perfectly capable of winning those kind of games, too. After blitzing the Predators in Round 1, the Avalanche needed to win a couple of ugly ones against the Blues and Oilers.
The last time the Avalanche went on the road with a 2-0 series lead Nathan MacKinnon admitted it was the team’s mission to muck it up.
“You don’t gotta please anybody. We’re here to make it boring and gross,” MacKinnon said after Colorado defeated Edmonton, 4-2, in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final.
If Tampa sells out to make this a defensive chess match, don’t expect the Avalanche to go all out and try to turn it into a track meet. That should create a recipe for a low-event game, which should keep both teams within reach of one another throughout regulation.