Let’s get this out of the way now: I take the “valuable” in the middle of MVP seriously.
So if you would like to make Mike Trout the best player again after a year hiatus due to injury, go ahead. And if you would like to name Shohei Ohtani as the most spectacular player, no argument here — he is the greatest show on grass, where unreal and unbelievable merge: A 2.44 ERA in 14 starts and 19 homers in the same human midway through a season still feels like a deranged fantasy baseball outcome (all stats through Friday).
But most valuable?
Not in these midseason awards. Not when both were essentially hiding in plain sight during the 14-game losing streak that pretty much ended another Angels season, albeit months before the actual games will run out. Though the obvious is obvious — Trout and Ohtani have been mis-served by their bosses’ failure to surround them with enough good players — this was a two-week period in which the team needed its two best players to save the season. They didn’t. They did the opposite. They played poorly. They contributed to the devastation.
And the season is not a theory or a math equation. It is really played and winning is the most important item, and the Angels’ chances of being a playoff team vanished at that point. It is narrative, of course, and folks (especially those who do advance metrics) will tell me narratives are biased. That is true. But these are my midseason awards, and thus — noted for all upfront — they are biased by what I deem as consequential.
This can’t simply be a stacking in order of who leads in Wins Above Replacement. Because though that is a valuable tool to try to understand the whole player, it: a) has different methods of calculations depending on the site, and b) is a calculation often quoted by people who have no idea the formula used to derive it — which is bizarre, if you think about it. At the moment I write this sentence, the three players leading the NL in Baseball Reference WAR are all Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman. Does even the most devoted WAR espouser think an NL MVP ballot should begin: 1. Goldschmidt. 2. Arenado. 3. Edman?
I think one day WAR will have an algorithm that weighs, among other things, when offense, defense and baserunning are produced in a game — a homer hit in a 2-2 game in the eighth inning is worth way more than one hit in a 7-1 game. It will better ding players who miss too many games (in the real world someone else — usually inferior — has to fill in for a starter). In the most absurd form, a player can play 100 games, hit 75 homers, all in games his club leads or trails 6-1, and the team can finish 20 games under .500 and he will have an awesome WAR. I suspect many organizations already have proprietorial tools that better weigh the data.
There has to be context. There has to be narrative. And because of that, the AL MVP halfway through the season is Aaron Judge.
I can make a strong narrative case for Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez, producing his brilliance without the presence of another established hitter in the lineup. Houston’s Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have cases — Alvarez has been the league’s best overall hitter. So does Boston’s Rafael Devers.
(By the way, if you could have Alvarez or Devers for the next five years, which awesome lefty hitter would you take?)
But Judge has withstood the noise around a failed extension with the Yankees to put himself on roughly a 60-homer pace and deliver a bunch of huge hits and, valuably for the Yankees, has played center field capably and better than Aaron Hicks to open many more lineup options for Aaron Boone. Judge is the fulcrum on and off the field for a team on pace to threaten the record for wins in a season. But Yankees fans should brace for him finishing behind a player from a losing team (Ohtani) or another Astro (Alvarez).
2. Ramirez. 3. Alvarez. 4. Devers. 5. Tucker.
AL Anti-MVP
Javier Baez, Tigers
The easy thing is to just give it to Joey Gallo, who I believe struck out as I wrote this sentence. And no argument with him. And there are others, who as overall players, have been worse than Baez — such as the White Sox duo of Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada, and the Mariners’ duo of Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker, with acknowledgment for the major league failure once again of Jarred Kelenic.
But Detroit was hoping to take a step forward this season, and central to that step was a six-year, $140 million deal with Baez. His performance has instead led to the Tigers being among the majors’ most disappointing clubs. Either his inability or refusal to make adjustments at the plate left him with a 77 OPS-plus — and that is with a recent surge. He had a .215 average and .252 on-base percentage. It would be the second time in his career he has been that low in both while qualifying for the batting title. The last time a player did it twice? Hal Lanier in 1967-68.
2. Gallo. 3. Grandal/Moncada. 4. Frazier/Winker. 5. Whit Merrifield, Royals.
NL MVP
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
The major league slashline with two strikes is .168/.242/.264. Goldschmidt was .270/.378/.491. That OPS of .869 would rank 20th in the majors for any situation — between J.D. Martinez and Kyle Schwarber. Among the 117 players who have at least 70 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Goldschmidt led the majors in batting average (.411), on-base percentage (.521) and slugging (.804). He has been the NL’s best overall hitter — leading in average, on-base percentage and slugging — while being a strong first baseman and baserunner.
2. Manny Machado, Padres. 3. Dansby Swanson, Braves. 4. Nolan Arenado, Cardinals. 5. Pete Alonso, Mets.
NL Anti-MVP
Nick Castellanos, Phillies
With Bryce Harper out, the Phillies need Castellanos’ offense, and he has just eight homers and a .680 OPS. And with Harper out, Castellanos has had to play right field, and pretty much every metric has him as one of the majors’ worst defenders. For five years at $100 million, the Phillies expected and, to end the longest playoff doubt in the NL, need more from Castellanos.
2. Kris Bryant, Rockies. 3. Jonathan India, Reds. 4. Joey Votto, Reds. 5. Robinson Cano, Mets/Padres.
AL Cy Young
Shane McClanahan, Rays
I think the lefty is the right answer. After all, he has permitted more than two earned runs in just two of 17 starts and in those two he gave up three. He led the AL in ERA (1.73) and the majors in strikeout percentage (36). But I write “I think” because, man, is it hard not to make it Justin Verlander.
After missing nearly two whole seasons and needing Tommy John surgery and being 39, Justin Verlander has a 2.00 ERA (second best in the AL) and looks a lot like Justin Verlander, in part because with all the age, inactivity and surgery he was one inning shy of leading of leading the AL and was on pace for 200-plus again.
2. Verlander, Astros. 3. Martin Perez, Rangers. 4. Alek Manoah, Blue Jays. 5. Framber Valdez, Astros.
AL Anti-Cy Young
Jose Berrios, Blue Jays
I picked him in the Post’s preseason baseball special to win the Cy Young based on his strong finish to last year after being obtained by Toronto, his prime age (28) and what I assumed would be comfort from a seven-year, $131 million extension. But he has given up the most earned runs (54) and homers (19) in the AL. Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi (signed to a three-year, $36 million pact) and Hyun-jin Ryu, before being lost for the season, have created a Blue Jays problem, with a combined 5.36 ERA in 39 starts.
2. Emilio Pagan, Twins. 3. Lucas Giolito, White Sox. 4. Aaron Civale, Guardians. 5. Matt Barnes, Red Sox.
NL Cy Young
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
I thought my brethren got it wrong in 2018 when Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young over Verlander, though Verlander had brilliant numbers and threw 34 ²/₃ innings (remember that number) more than Snell — roughly the equivalent of five seven-inning starts. The true ace — the one who logs big innings — is more valuable than ever now because it is so rare and does so much to (among other things) protect a bullpen that hardly ever is protected now.
I see the NL race this year forming in the same way. The Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin is having a tremendous year — made more valuable by the absence of ace Walker Buehler. But Alcantara has thrown 12 innings more than anyone in the majors and 34 ²/₃ innings (told you to remember that number) more than Gonsolin, which more than makes up for the difference between Gonsolin’s 1.62 ERA and Alcantara’s 1.82.
A National League starter has completed nine innings seven times this year — three by Alcantara. The righty has gone at least eight innings eight times this year — five more than anyone else.
2. Gonsolin. 3. Max Fried, Braves. 4. Corbin Burnes, Brewers. 5. Zack Wheeler, Phillies.
NL Anti-Cy Young
Patrick Corbin, Nationals
Championships are forever, so the Nationals would not change how much they used Corbin and Stephen Strasburg in 2019. But they have just not been the same pitchers since. Corbin is 15-33 with a 5.55 ERA beginning in 2020, including a 5.68 ERA in 2022 even with two strong recent starts. The injury-beset Strasburg has made just eight starts since the title — and since signing a seven-year, $245 million pact — and pitched to a 6.89 ERA. The failure of Corbin and Strasburg has doomed the Nationals as much as anything.
2. German Marquez, Rockies. 3. Trevor Rogers, Marlins. 4. Craig Kimbrel, Dodgers. 5. Snell, Padres.
AL Rookie of the Year
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
It is not an easy call between Rodriguez and Jeremy Pena, who replaced Carlos Correa as the Astros’ shortstop and has done an outstanding impression of Correa both at bat and in the field. Rodriguez has just been a little more phenomenal with 15 homers and a MLB-leading 21 steals in his first 84 games to go along with an .820 OPS.
2. Pena. 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals. 4. Joe Ryan, Twins. 5. Brock Burke, Rangers.
NL Rookie of the Year
Michael Harris II, Braves
Since Harris went into the lineup May 28, Atlanta has the NL’s best record (28-11), and he has been a key reason — a .310 average, an .885 OPS and superb play in center. It is close with teammate, Spencer Strider, whose move into the rotation has helped elevate that area for the Braves.
2. Strider. 3. MacKenzie Gore, Padres. 4. Brendan Donovan, Cardinals. 5. Christopher Morel, Cubs.
AL Manager of the Year
Aaron Boone, Yankees
Here is an actual fact: Among those who have managed at least 600 games in their career — a group of 241 gentlemen — Vic Harris (.663) has the best winning percentage, Dave Roberts (.624) is second and Boone (.617) is third. It is easy to downgrade Boone as simply the beneficiary of a big-budget and loaded roster — or to portray him as a puppet of analytical masters above him.
But a lot of big payrolls and a lot of talented teams have underwhelmed. This one has been unified and — even if they are not Boone’s own ideas — someone had to move Aaron Judge to center and have him be good with it, and have a bunch of experienced infielders moving around and sitting at times, and transitioning Aroldis Chapman out of the closer spot.
2. Dusty Baker, Astros. 3. Rocco Baldelli, Twins. 4. Alex Cora, Red Sox. 5. Brandon Hyde, Orioles
NL Manager of the Year
Buck Showalter, Mets
Showalter moved into the top 20 in games managed all-time, and he Baker and Gene Mauch represent the only three of 23 men to reach 3,000 games managed to not have won a World Series title. Like Baker, he has a team that gives him another shot this year — in part because of Showalter’s work with the Mets.
The best compliment I can think of for Showalter is how mundane he has made winning with the Mets. There are just a lot of days the Mets show up, are better than the other team, play a clean game and win. No stress. No drama. It is different from recent vintage Mets, who even when winning, frazzled credulity and nerves. This has become an alibi-free, game- and team-focused group that — as opposed to recent teams — is not underplaying its talent, but rather has stayed steady without Jacob deGrom all year and Max Scherzer for seven weeks.
2. Roberts, Dodgers. 3. Bob Melvin, Padres. 4. Brian Snitker, Braves. 5. Rob Thomson, Phillies.
