3M Open odds, projections: TPC Twin Cities favors bombers in birdie-fest

Cameron Smith used a Sunday 64 — his second such score in three days — to overcome Rory McIlroy and win the Open Championship.

It’s the first major victory for the Australian, who previously posted two top-three finishes at Augusta National. It’s also the first ever major win for a player named “Cameron!” 

Now, a small group of players will skip across the pond for this week’s PGA Tour event — the 3M Open — at TPC Twin Cities. The Arnold Palmer design is a Par-71 that stretches north of 7,400 yards and sees Tony Finau (+1400) arrive as the favorite for the week. Rounding out the first four choices on the odds board are Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), Sungjae Im (+1600) and Maverick McNealy (+2200) before a log-jam of players at +2500.

But before we dive into any bets for the week, we begin as always, with my statistical modeling strategy for the event. Without further delay, let’s dive in. 

3m Open odds, projections for this weekend’s golf tournament

Stat #1 – Good Drives Gained (12 percent emphasis)

Those players making the trek from Scotland to Minnesota will immediately notice a key difference off the tee.

Not only is TPC Twin Cities a long course, but there’s somewhat penal rough that will force players to be accurate with their tee shots. Per datagolf.com, driving accuracy and finishing position has a 33 percent historical correlation while driving distance carries less than a one percent correlation.

Thus, I’m leading off my model with good drives gained — a stat defined as when a player either hits the fairway or reaches the green from the rough. Historically, there’s a decent correlation between this stat and finishing position — three of the top-four in this category last year finished in the top-20.

That said, it’s not overly important as the three winners at this track finished 31st, third and 37th in this metric. Here are the good drives gained leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Brendan Steele (+3500)
2. Ryan Armour (+12500)
3. Brendon Todd (+4000)
4. Matthew NeSmith (+5000)
5. Martin Laird (+4000)

All odds are provided by BetMGM

Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (17 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – Proximity: 175 to 200 yards (5 percent emphasis)

Like most weeks, approach play is the strongest indicator of success at TPC Twin Cities.

Again per datagolf.com, SG: Approach registers as a 60 percent correlative stat with finishing position. Over the last three tournaments, the winners of the event ultimately finished 21st, fourth and second for the week in this metric — sidebar: if you’re wondering how Cameron Champ won last year with his sub-par driving and approach metrics, it’s because he gained 8.5 strokes putting.

But this stat isn’t limited to correlation with victory. It also helps forecast derivative markets too — over the last three years, 10 of the combined top-five for each year finished inside the top-20.

For that reason, this metric gets my highest emphasis percentage for the week. I’ve added the proximity metric because a plurality (20.5 percent) of all approaches comes from this range, which is quite lengthy. Thus, I want to sort out players who aren’t strong with long irons.

Here are the leaders in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds:

1. Brendan Steele (+3500)
2. Davis Riley (+2000)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
4. Tony Finau (+1400)
5. Adam Svensson (+4000)

Stat #3 – Greens in Regulation Gained (13 percent emphasis)

Although the greens at TPC Twin Cities are about tour average in square footage, we’ve seen this stat carry high importance historically.

Three of the top five in this metric last year finished tied for sixth or better, while the two winners in 2020 and 2019 — Michael Thompson and Matthew Wolff — finished third and sixth, respectively, in this stat for the week.

Additionally, winners here gained almost 0.44 greens per round than those players who finished in the top-five and almost 0.65 greens per round more than those that finished inside the top 20.

Additionally, players are naturally expected to hit more greens at TPC Twin Cities. The average tour stop sees players hit about 66 percent of greens in regulation. Here, that figure rises to 73 percent.

Here are the GIRs gained leaders over the last 24 rounds:

1. Brendan Steele (+3500)
2. Davis Riley (+2000)
3. Emiliano Grillo (+5000)
4. Tony Finau (+1400)
5. Adam Long (+3300)

Stats #4 & #5 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis) & Bogey Avoidance (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats – Putting: 5 to 10 feet (5 percent emphasis), Putting: 10 to 15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

Interestingly, both birdies or better gained and bogey avoidance simultaneously carry a lot of importance.

Historically, the 3M Open has seen a birdie-fest each year, with winning scores regularly nearing -20 (the average across the last years is just over -18). For that reason, players will need to score at a frequent rate in order to have success this week.

That statement is backed up by the fact the last three winners here have finished T-2nd, T-7th, and first in BoB gained for the week.

At the same time, though, those same three players have finished near the top of the leaderboard just in terms of bogey avoidance. The last two winners here — Champ and Thompson — finished fifth and first, respectively, in bogey avoidance for the week.

Here are the leaders in each metric over the last 24 rounds:

Birdies or Better Gained

1. Stewart Cink (+10000)
2. Adam Svensson (+4000)
3. Nick Hardy (+4000)
4. J.T. Poston (+3300)
5. Davis Riley (+2000)

Bogey Avoidance

1. Tony Finau (+1400)
2. Lanto Griffin (+8000)
3. Cameron Davis (+2500)
4. Davis Riley (+2000)
5. Sungjae Im (+1600)

Stats #6 & #7 – SG: Par 4’s (12 percent emphasis) & SG: Par 5’s (6 percent emphasis)

As a result of TPC Twin Cities’s 11 Par 4’s, players will need to have a penchant for those holes to have success.

Somewhat expectedly, all of the last three winners here finished second or better for the week in Par 4 efficiency. In terms of the scoring opportunities on these holes, the opportunities are clear: four holes rank among the seven easiest holes, with a further three ranking inside the 12 easiest holes.

Now for the somewhat odd part: Par 5 scoring. These three holes are the three easiest at TPC Twin Cities, but winners have historically proven lackluster on these setups. Last year, Champ played these three holes a cumulative -1 for the week, Thompson played them to -3 in 2020, while Wolff played the three holes to -4 for his victory in 2019.

It’s my belief these holes should provide a bigger opportunity for players, so I’m choosing to include it in my model albeit with a small emphasis. Players who take advantage of these three holes should find themselves with a chance to win Sunday.

That said, here are the leaders in SG: Par 4’s over the last 24 rounds:

1. J.T Poston (+3300)
2. Tony Finau (+1400)
3. Davis Riley (+2000)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
5. Adam Long (+3300)