After wrapping up the AFC win totals, we can now turn our attention to the NFC, with training camps officially opening just a few days from now.
Only one division feels like the perfect place to start, considering that it has three of the oldest teams in NFL history.
Let’s head up North for a preview of the Bears, Lions, Vikings, and Packers.
NFC North Win Totals
Provided by BetMGM
| NFC North Team | Over | Under |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 / +120 | 6.5 / -145 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 / -110 | 6.5 / -110 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 / -165 | 8.5 / +140 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 / -145 | 10.5 / +120 |
Green Bay is the odds-on favorite to win the division at -165. Minnesota is priced at +260, with Detroit next up at +850. Lastly, Chicago has the longest odds on the board at +1000.
The final thing to note is the scheduling composition for the NFC North, as each team will have the following:
- Six games against divisional opponents.
- Four intraconference games against the NFC East.
- Four interconference games against the AFC East.
- One game against an AFC South team with a similar win-loss record from the previous season.
Chicago Bears Under 6.5 Wins (-145 / 1.5 units)
There’s often a strong correlation between a team’s divisional odds and their win total. In this case, I think the oddsmakers have tipped their hand because Chicago is a long shot at winning the division, yet its projection of 6.5 wins is the same as Detroit’s.
I have my thoughts on how I expect things to play out for the Bears but first, let’s dive right into their offseason moves.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Chicago Bears ranked near the bottom in offseason grades with a C. The problem is that the Bears lacked young assets on their roster, so they first needed a fire sale before even considering rebuilding the team.
As a result, the Bears will be without key defensive players like linebacker Khalil Mack (73.0 PFF grade), defensive linemen Akiem Hicks (72.3 PFF grade) and Bilal Nichols (61.3 PFF grade), and safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (73.0 PFF grade).
On offense, they lost wide receiver Allen Robinson II (66.9 PFF grade), guard James Daniels (71.0 PFF grade), and tackle Jason Peters (77.5 PFF grade).
The problem is that Chicago didn’t necessarily bring back a lot of quality in terms of free agency. And when the Bears did manage to pursue a free agent aggressively, things didn’t necessarily go as planned.
For example, after agreeing to terms with Larry Ogunjobi, the defensive tackle’s surgically repaired right foot wasn’t healthy enough to pass his physical.
Then, when Chicago went after Buffalo’s Ryan Bates, the Bills matched the offer sheet for the restricted free agent.
As for the draft, the Bears didn’t have a first-round pick after trading up to select Justin Fields in 2021. Thus, their first selection wasn’t until the 39th pick in the second round, when they grabbed Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon.
Nine picks later, Chicago selected Penn State safety, Jaquan Brisker.
It wasn’t until the third round that the Bears decided on a receiver with Tennessee’s Velus Jones Jr. (71st pick). In the fifth round, the Bears added an offensive tackle in Braxton Jones (168th pick) from Southern Utah.
Six picks later; they selected Miami Ohio linebacker Dominique Robinson (174th pick).
Chicago made six more selections between the sixth and seventh rounds. But, when you’re picking at that stage in the draft, more risk is associated with your choices. And surprisingly, it’s not like the Bears went out and selected a bunch of wide receivers to give their second-year quarterback some help.
Chicago will likely need to play a lot of young players, given the veterans that departed. Thus, given the current roster along with first-year head coach Matt Eberflus, I don’t see a path forward for Chicago to win seven games.
I love the under with this win total, and I’ll look to risk 1.5 units of my bankroll.
Detroit Lions Over 6.5 Wins (-110 / 1 unit)
After winning just three games in 2021, the Detroit Lions will have some expectations this season, given their projected win total of 6.5 games.
There were undoubtedly some winnable games for the Lions last season as they went 1-5-1 in games decided by four or fewer points. After running the numbers, Detroit’s Pythagorean expectation suggested some positive regression as it should’ve been closer to a five-win season.
The Lions received good marks for their offseason as Pro Football Focus gave them an A- grade. For example, they improved at the wide receiver position by landing D.J. Chark Jr. (65.9 PFF grade), Josh Reynolds (65.9 PFF grade), and Kalif Raymond (60.5 PFF grade).
The offensive line should also take a step forward with center Evan Brown (66.8 PFF grade).
In the secondary, the Lions added safeties Tracy Walker III (65.1 PFF grade) and C.J. Moore (59.2 PFF grade). Their front seven should also improve with edge rusher Charles Harris (68.3 PFF grade).
If we turn to the draft, Detroit landed arguably the best player in the draft in Aidan Hutchinson (2nd pick) after the Jaguars passed on him as the No. 1 overall pick. The Lions had a second first-round pick and used that on Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams (12th pick).
In the second and third rounds, Detroit added two more defensive players: Kentucky lineman Joshua Paschal (46th pick) and Illinois safety Kerby Joseph (97th pick). In the fifth round, the Lions grabbed Virginia tight end James Mitchell (177th pick).
The Lions used their final three picks in the sixth and seventh round on defense with Oklahoma State linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez (188th pick), Jackson State’s edge rusher James Houston (2nd pick), and Arizona State cornerback Chase Lucas (237th pick).
Given Detroit’s investment in defense, I think they’ll win more coinflip games this upcoming season. Although I feel this number is right around where it should be, my projections have a slight edge with the Lions winning seven games.
That edge is enough to get me to the window for a play on the over for their win total.
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 Wins (Pass)
The Minnesota Vikings entered last season with a win total of 8.5 games. The oddsmakers were spot on with their projection as Minnesota finished the season at 8-9.
Moreover, the Vikings’ Pythagorean expectation would suggest it was a fair result, given that the stats don’t point to any positive or negative regression in either direction.
From afar, I can’t help but think that something is broken within the Vikings organization. Last season there were questions about the team not playing hard for their head coach Mike Zimmer. For whatever reason, the bookmakers were down on Minnesota heading into the season, and the Vikings failed to prove them wrong.
If I can paraphrase a famous quote by the late NFL head coach Dennis Green, “The Vikings are who we thought they were.” Yet, the projected mediocre team still found cause to fire their head coach Mike Zimmer.
Bettors are probably thinking, “How do you fire a man that’s 75-53-1 with +17.73 units and a 13.7% ROI as a head coach?” According to our Action Labs database that goes back to the start of the 2003 season, only Bill Belichick, Mike McCarthy, and Sean Payton have won more for bettors as head coaches.
The Vikings didn’t exactly wow people away with their offseason moves, as they received a C+ grade from Pro Football Focus. Minnesota lost key players like center Mason Cole (68.3 PFF grade), tight end Tyler Conklin (66.7 PFF and safety Xavier Woods (66.4 PFF grade).
However, the Vikings did add Chris Reed (67.2 PFF grade) and Jesse Davis (52.5 PFF grade) to their offensive line. Johnny Mundt (64.7 PFF grade) could replace Conkin at tight end.
On defense, Minnesota added Harrison Phillips (77.4 PFF grade) and Za’Darius Smith (58.9 PFF grade) to their defensive line. Jordan Hicks (64.7 PFF grade) will provide support at the outside linebacker position while cornerbacks Nate Hairston (73.3 PFF grade) and Chandon Sullivan (55.0 PFF grade) patrol the secondary.
As for the draft, Minnesota waited until the end of the first round to make a selection after trading their 12th overall pick with the Lions for a 32nd, 34th, and 66th pick. With the 32nd pick, they landed on Georgia safety Lewis Cine.
In the second round, they selected Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. (2nd pick) and LSU guard Ed Ingram (59th pick).
They opted for defense with their next three picks with the selections of Oklahoma State linebacker Brian Asamoah (66th pick), Missouri cornerback Akayleb Evans (118th pick), and Minnesota defensive lineman Esezi Otomewo (165th pick).
Minnesota used their remaining four picks on offensive players by adding North Carolina cornerback Ty Chandler (169th pick), Illinois tackle Vederian Lowe (184th pick), Michigan State wide receiver Jalen Nailor (191st pick), and South Carolina tight end Nick Muse (227th pick).
When you talk to Vikings fans, they’re often pessimistic about their team. I, too, have my doubts as I’m not sure their first-year head coach will be able to fix whatever is broken with this organization.
If Minnesota can’t even make a firm commitment beyond a one-year contract to quarterback Kirk Cousins, why should I also be bullish on them this season?
Thus, given the uncertainty that remains with this team, I can only look to pass on their win total.
Green Bay Packers Over 10.5 Wins (-145 / 0.5 units)
Despite trading All-Pro wide receiver, Davante Adams (92.7 PFF grade) to the Raiders, the Green Bay Packers are still the cream of the crop in the NFC North, thanks to quarterback Aaron Rodgers (89.6 PFF grade).
If there’s one clue we can glean from the Vegas win total, it has to be that Adams is worth two wins by himself. Thus if we subtracted two wins from Green Bay last season, they’d finish 11-5.
And with a win total of 10.5 this season, the Packers could still finish above the number.
However, given that Adams spent eight seasons with the Packers in Green Bay, there is a chance that his departure looms even more significant. After all, he was often a safety blanket for Rodgers, particularly inside the red zone.
I’m not sure the Packers quarterback can develop that familiarity with another receiver within a shorter timeframe.
Let’s continue our analysis by looking at the Packers’ roster moves to see if they at least helped themselves during the offseason.
While we all know about the Adams departure, the Packers also lost two other wide receivers in Marquez Valdes-Scantling (66.1 PFF grade) and Equanimeous St. Brown (57.4 PFF grade). Sammy Watkins (66.3 PFF grade) was brought in to fill Adams’ shoes.
However, Green Bay is not a team known to swing for the fences during free agency. Instead, the Packers opt to build from within and use the draft as a function to develop their teams.
Thus, it’s no surprise that Green Bay spent much of their free agency re-signing the players they wanted to keep, such as linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (84.7 PFF grade), cornerback Rasul Douglas (74.8 PFF grade), and tight end Robert Tonyan (54.6 PFF grade).
Despite the wide receiver position being a clear focus point for the Packers, they opted for Georgia linebacker Quay Walker (22nd pick) with their first selection. Green Bay then used its second first-round pick to select another Georgia player in defensive lineman Devote Wyatt (28th pick).
Green Bay finally went with a receiver in the second round by selecting South Dakota State’s Christian Watson (34th pick). In the third round, UCLA offensive lineman Sean Rhyan (92nd pick) was next off the board for Green Bay.
The Packers used their next two picks on offensive players by grabbing Nevada wide receiver Romeo Doubs (132nd pick) and Wake Forest’s Zach Tom (140th pick).
In the fifth round, Green Bay went with South Carolina edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare (179th pick).
The Packers finished with four picks in the seventh round as they selected Georgia Tech linebacker Tariq Carpenter (228th pick), Miami defensive lineman Jonathan Ford (234th pick), Penn State offensive tackle Rasheed Walker (249th pick), and Nebraska wide receiver Samori Toure (258th pick).
Yet, while the Packers received mixed reviews for their picks, I think they have a history of success finding value in the draft.
Between Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay has won 13 games in three straight seasons. Before that, you’d have to go back to 2007 to find the last time Green Bay won 13 games.
I think where Green Bay will surprise a lot of people this season is with their defense. I think they know full well they can’t replace Adams. As a result, they’ll try to use their defense to help bridge the gap.
While I believe this win total is right where it should be, I expect Rodgers to get more comfortable with his young receivers as the season wears on. And although I don’t necessarily love the juice at -145, I think the Packers deserve more than a lean in the win total.
As a result, I recommend risking a half-unit on over 10.5 wins.
