MEMPHIS — Good luck trying to piece together all of the historical data for this one.
Starting in 1958 as the Memphis Open, the PGA Tour’s Memphis-based event moved to host venue TPC Southwind in 1989. It then underwent a litany of name changes over the years, culminating in being called the FedEx St. Jude Classic for its final eight editions through 2018.
Despite remaining in the same location, that tournament ceased to exist the following year, instead becoming the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and inheriting all the history of the erstwhile WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, which is how Tiger Woods is the all-time leading money winner of that event by more than $7 million without ever competing in Memphis.
This week, it becomes the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first event of this season’s FedEx Cup playoffs, which used to be The Northern Trust and before that was The Barclays, which in turn means the leading money winner in the history of this tournament is now Dustin Johnson, who’s already resigned from the PGA Tour and (despite winning twice in Memphis) will likely never play in anything called the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
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Make sense?
Here’s another mind-bender: Of the top-10 in Memphis last year (which included a total of 11 players), five are no longer eligible to play here.
Well, at least they’re not until perhaps Tuesday afternoon when a court will rule on “Mickelson et al. vs. the PGA Tour,” which could make Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford, and Matt Jones eligible for the playoffs after being indefinitely suspended for joining LIV Golf.
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Just imagine reading any of those words a year ago and trying to understand what they meant or how they were even possible.
On to this week’s tournament plays, where many of the big names return for the first time since the year’s final major championship, as the golf world prepares itself for another dramatic week — both inside and outside the ropes.
All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
FedEx St. Jude Classic outright winner
Collin Morikawa (33/1)
First things first: During a summer of lost luggage, it’s nice to know that a player whom you’re betting has all the right tools of the trade arrive at his destination — and that is the case with Morikawa this week, though it wasn’t without a bit of trepidation.
Here’s hoping he wore out those clubs during his recent three-week break, following a pair of missed cuts at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship.
Even though he was the defending champion at the latter, I don’t put too much stock into form at those overseas starts. In his last appearance on U.S. soil, Morikawa finished in a share of fifth place at the U.S. Open.
What I do like is that his odds have drifted, which historically has been a signal that we should start playing him and that he’s one of the few top-10 players to really pop this year.
In a game that’s so often cyclical, we’ve seen an uptick on players such as Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas, just to name a few. As they often say in NBA games, every team goes on a run at some point. This just might be Morikawa’s time to go on a run, much like Patrick Cantlay last year.
Despite those recent struggles, Morikawa’s iron game has remained elite. We know he owns the ability to win whenever his putting is just above-average, which means only a small improvement from his past two Memphis starts. I like Morikawa to start that proverbial run on a course where iron play is the most important metric.
Top-20 finish
Max Homa (+190)
I had initially tabbed Tommy Fleetwood for a top-20, but with him tweeting that he’s spending time with family instead of playing in the playoffs, I’ll go with Homa, who owns a similar percentage of top-20 cashes this year. In 16 starts, he owns nine of ‘em. At that rate, I like him against the implied probability of these odds. Expect his consistency to continue.