There is rarely one, universal fix-all for complex problems. Gas prices aren’t the lone contributor to inflation, even if it is a significant contributor. DC superhero movies being too dark wasn’t the core problem of DC superhero movies, it was that they were badly written/directed/produced movies.
Likewise, there is no simple solution to protect yourself from the shallowness and volatility at the fantasy running back position. And one of the worst things you can do with such an important position is to avoid it entirely, at least during the rounds that matter most.
Nevertheless, some are seduced by the very idea of being contrarian merely for contrarian’s sake. Thus, the introduction of the Zero-RB Theory.
To be clear, for those neophytes who don’t fully understand this approach: Zero-RB does not mean you don’t draft an RB at all — many fantasy draft sites require you to take to select at least enough to fill an active roster. What it means is avoiding RBs in the early rounds, thus dodging the possibility of a colossal bust — the rationale essentially being that catastrophic injuries occur more often to RBs than any other position.
There is no definitive definition or threshold at which an approach becomes Zero-RB, but generally speaking, normally, this means not taking an RB in the first five or so rounds. That’s how we’re going to define here, no RB for the first five rounds.
In terms of what that does to your options, consider: RBs you might — might — find in the sixth round this season include: Miles Sanders, Rashaad Penny, Kareem Hunt, Devin Singletary, Chase Edmonds, Tony Pollard, etc.
Now, there is nothing inherently wrong with having any of these guys on your roster. They all have upside. But we like most as our RB3, maybe even RB4. Not our RB1, which is what you’ll be picking if you wait this late to take your first one.
In practical terms, Zero-RB requires you to nail multiple middle-late RB picks, which is not easy to do. It also means you can’t afford to miss on any of your early picks, which also isn’t easy to do. Sure, you might build a winner this way, but it creates a small margin for error.
You need just the right players to get hurt or be so bad they are replaced in real-world lineups so that your Zero-RBs get the volume they need for your roster to be competitive. You need to avoid injuries, which don’t happen only to high-draft picks but to later-round picks too. And you need those deep picks to maximize their potential, which many players never do.
Considering how shallow RB is compared to other positions, the best way to maximize your probability of success is to lean into those deeper talent pools, not depend on the shallowest. That means you would instead rely on later picks at WR or quarterback or tight end than later picks on RB. Those later RB picks should be for insurance and depth —to cover for injury or bye weeks. You stand a much better chance of stumbling onto a startable WR later in the draft than you do an RB.
When you get to the sixth round, you’re looking at picking basically the 30th running back or wide receiver. Last season, the 30th-ranked fantasy RB was Saquon Barkley, who scored roughly 148 in PPR leagues. The 30th-ranked WR was DeVonta Smith, who scored 185. That is a weekly average of 2.2 points a week less for the RB.
For further reference, the 30th RB pick last season was Trey Sermon (28 points last season), the presumed backup to oft-injured Raheem Mostert in the sixth round. The 30th WR was Robbie Anderson (138), less than a round later and just before Smith.
Other RB options that went in the rounds immediately following the fifth included Edmonds, Melvin Gordon, Michael Carter, Ronald Jones, A.J. Dillon, Sony Michel, Zach Moss, and Jamaal Williams.
Eventually, you did have some huge hits late: Leonard Fournette, James Conner, and, to a lesser extent, Singletary — with Kenyan Drake, Phillip Lindsay, Tony Pollard, and Davis Johnson to follow.
So, you can consider maybe 12 of 15 of those backs in rounds 6-9 to be misses. Of the 24 RBs routinely taken in the first rounds last year, there were roughly eight busts — Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Carson, Miles Sanders, Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, and Gus Edwards.
Do you think you have a better chance of finding the three among 15 good ones later or the 16 among 24 early?
Does it help if we remind you that in this same Zero-RB wheelhouse that you also could have found Ja’Maar Chase, Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman Jr., and Darnell Mooney? And we’re not including late-round picks who ended up being dropped and later league-winning waiver finds like Gabriel Davis and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Of course, there are super RBs who are waiver finds, too, like James Conner and Cordarrelle Paterson. But simply being on the waiver wire doesn’t guarantee you will get them over other hungry league-mates.
It is perfectly OK to think outside the box. The Madman applauds whoever invented the Zero-RB Theory for their creative thinking. It is a fantastic thought experiment and genuinely interesting to employ in mock drafts.
But in real leagues, with rosters you have to manage across an entire season, when there are stakes to be won, that’s not the time to get cute.
Instead of Zero-RB, plan on the coming chaos and give yourself the proper protection to best defend against it, a bench that can save you in the event of a catastrophe. That means having a stable of more reliable RB options that can only be had in the earlier rounds. Don’t plan on Zero-RB; plan on Hero-RB.
