The last time the Packers faced off against the Chiefs, backup quarterback Jordan Love struggled mightily in the only regular-season start of his young career. What will we see in his second stint against Kansas City?
He’ll almost certainly take the lion’s share of snaps for Green Bay, which plans to rest every veteran starter for the third consecutive week. The Chiefs are expected to sit a few of their key starters, too, though we’ll likely see a bit more firepower from the home underdogs.
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on NFL Network.
Chiefs vs. Packers Odds (via BetMGM)
- Packers -1 (-110), moneyline -115
- Chiefs +1 (-110), moneyline -105
- O/U 35.5 (-110)
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Chiefs vs. Packers Prediction: The Analysis
This preseason has been the ultimate proving ground for Love, a former first-round pick, to make his case as a future starter in Green Bay or elsewhere. So far, the results have been decidedly mixed.
The Packers gunslinger threw two touchdowns and three interceptions in Week 1 against the 49ers’ talented – albeit mostly reserve – defensive unit. He cut down on the turnovers in Week 2 against the Saints, but he mustered just 113 yards with a 50% completion rate through three-and-a-half quarters before the Packers replaced him with Danny Etling and ran on nearly every play down the stretch.
That strategy likely won’t bear fruit against these Chiefs, who are sure to put up points early in this one if Patrick Mahomes sees the field. He’s played in each of the previous two preseason games, and coach Andy Reid was non-committal about his status leading up to Thursday’s finale. If he goes, though, expect Kansas City’s offense to thrive.
In limited preseason action, Mahomes has gone 18-of-26 for 222 yards and three touchdowns in just three possessions. With the Packers set to rest most of their starters on both sides of the ball, there’s a massive value opportunity to play the Chiefs before the game and hedge on the Packers after a potential scoring drive from the home side.
Even if Mahomes sits, too, backup Shane Buechele has been efficient enough to lead an offense stocked full of dynamic rushers – which plays well given Reid’s conservative tendencies in the preseason. Conversely, while Love has all the talent in the world, he’s prone to an errant throw trying to make something happen, as we saw earlier this preseason and when these teams played a year ago.
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Love is really the only reason the Packers are favored here, as the Chiefs should roll out more starters from the opening kickoff and have home-field advantage – for whatever that’s worth in these exhibitions – on their side. With both teams coming off 10-point wins last week, too, I’m grabbing the points on the home squad with the upside of an early spark from Mahomes.
Chiefs vs. Packers Pick
Chiefs +1 (-110 BetMGM)