Already Week 5 of the NFL season. Savor it – it doesn’t last forever.
We head into the second quarter of the season with a few spots to target before the week progresses and bets start flying in from the public.
Sharps have made their positions known, betting the Packers from -6.5 to -8 against the possibly Daniel Jones-less Giants. Safe to say that the betting value is gone from that Sunday morning game in London.
However, favorites are not going to be the targets for this weekend. Instead, we want to target the underdogs at key numbers before they are gone.
All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and were accurate at the time of publishing.
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Early NFL Week 5 betting odds and spreads to target
COWBOYS (+5) vs. Rams
Dak Prescott or Cooper Rush? Or does it matter? The Cowboys have a formula here, and it revolves around Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence and not making mistakes on offense. And regardless of who starts, we know that the Rams’ offensive line is going to get crushed by this elite pass rush.
Pro Football Focus has ranked each team’s pass-rushing ability. The Rams got run over by the San Francisco 49ers’ defensive line (5th ranked) and now face the second-ranked pass rush in Dallas. Target the Cowboys at +5, as the line will likely move to four or less before long.
UNDER 43.5 Broncos vs. Colts
Who doesn’t love a primetime under bet? If you don’t, then you likely don’t love money, either. Primetime unders are 7-3 so far this season. Going back even further, they are 101-72-3 to under (58 percent) since 2019.
Trends can be fickle, so let’s look at this game as a whole. Pro Football Focus ranks the Broncos’ defense seventh overall and sixth best in pass rushing. How do we think Matt Ryan will fare against this defense with, at best, a limited Jonathan Taylor? Or maybe without the star running back entirely?
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Ryan is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL against the rush. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the sixth worst in the NFL against pressure, and has thrown four of his five interceptions in 31 dropbacks against pressure. Yikes.
The Colts do have a bad defense (26th overall) but are the seventh-best at stopping the run. Having lost Javonte Williams to a torn ACL, the Broncos won’t be able to lean on Latavius Murray or Melvin Gordon much, leaving Russell Wilson in another spot where he needs to bust out of his slump. He had his best game in Week 4 – and it resulted in 23 points against a poor Raiders defense.
RAIDERS (+7) vs. Chiefs
Not surprisingly, the seven number is crucial; this could even be bet up to 7.5. Currently, the number is +100, so if it does move to 7.5, it would absolutely be a play for this divisional matchup, even on the road for Las Vegas. Many may have forgotten that the Raiders were a dark horse candidate to win this division with the addition of Davante Adams to an already solid offense.
It was Josh Jacobs who seized the opportunity last week, running for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos. The Chiefs clearly do not need Tyreek Hill, so the Raiders’ plan should still be to play keep away. Run the ball first to open up the field for Adams and Waller. It is very important to wear down this Chiefs defense, which should be a run funnel. Josh McDaniels should know this from his time in New England with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe hold for a 7.5, but this is an early line we are targeting.