Aaron Judge’s home run chase is over. Now, the best story in sports comes from the most unexpected corner imaginable — Kansas football.
The 19th-ranked Jayhawks (5-0) are in the polls for the first time in 13 years — ending the longest drought among Power Five conference teams — and are tied atop the Big 12 standings. With two months left in the regular season, they have multiple wins in conference for the first time in 14 years, and they are one win from becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since 2008.
At a university that has gone 23-118 since 2010 — including 2-10 last season and winless the previous season under former national title-winning coach Les Miles — second-year coach Lance Leipold has sparked the most unlikely success story in college football. Led by quarterback Jalon Daniels and an offense averaging 38 points per game, the Jayhawks pulled off upsets at West Virginia and Houston, before holding Iowa State to 11 points in a victory last week.
But Leipold, a Wisconsin native who once led Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater to six national titles, may not be in Lawrence much longer. Calls from Wisconsin and Nebraska will certainly come and the lowest-paid coach in the Big 12 may not be able to resist a significant raise in salary, stature and resources at a football-first school.
Before that, however, he will see how much better this season’s story can get. The biggest home game for KANSAS (+7) in 15 years, Saturday against TCU, isn’t the time to resume doubting a team that is covering its games by an average of 15 points.
INDIANA (+22.5) over Michigan
The Hoosiers’ underrated run defense, which is allowing 3.4 yards per carry, should keep them within three touchdowns against an offense that has slowed in Big Ten play. The Wolverines’ looming game against Penn State on Oct. 15 has their focus.
Tennessee (-3) over LSU
Brian Kelly’s record against top-10 teams (4-11) won’t be improved by a roster he hasn’t had time to shape. The Volunteers’ visit to Death Valley is less intimidating when you realize the Tigers are 4-4 at home in SEC play the past two seasons.
Texas (-7) over Oklahoma (at Dallas)
It looks like a misprint. Texas hasn’t been favored in the Red River Shootout since 2009. But there is no other way to look at this matchup, when combining the likely absence of Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel with a concussion (fire coach Brent Venables if he lets his quarterback take the field after watching what happened to Tua Tagovailoa) with a defense that has allowed 96 points in two conference games.
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Auburn (+29.5) over GEORGIA
The past two weeks have been a reminder of how tough it is to stay on top, especially when you are defending a championship instead of chasing one. Georgia has failed to cover five straight home games as a favorite, clinging to a 10-point fourth quarter lead against Kent State and trailing lowly Missouri for 56 minutes. You can’t count on Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett for this massive cover after he has gone back-to-back weeks without a touchdown pass.
Texas Tech (+9.5) over OKLAHOMA STATE
For the moment, the Cowboys are the team to the beat in the wide-open Big 12. But the Red Raiders’ ninth-ranked passing attack is built to exploit a defense that has taken a significant step back from last season and is allowing more passing yards than all but three teams in the nation.
Utah (-3.5) over UCLA
The Utes’ fluky season-opening loss at Florida and the resurgence of USC have shifted attention from the reigning Pac-12 champs, who — I’ll repeat every week — remain the best team in the conference. Utah has won its past four games by an average of 35 points. Thank an unproven and overrated Washington for inflating the perception of UCLA and keeping this line low against the Utes, who have covered four straight games against ranked opponents.
Ohio State (-27) over MICHIGAN STATE
I may just watch the 2015 matchup instead and try to figure out how perhaps the most talented team of the playoff era blew back-to-back title chances against a backup quarterback at home. Or, I’ll reread Michigan State’s press release from last year, justifying a 10-year, $95 million contract to a coach, Mel Tucker, who now has a 15-10 record with the Spartans.
VANDERBILT (+17.5) over Mississippi
Ole Miss’ celebration from last week — after a win over No. 7 Kentucky — is their hangover this week. The Commodores have covered five straight games after a loss and can find inspiration from the Rebels’ letdown Sept. 24 against Tulsa.
Clemson (-20.5) over BOSTON COLLEGE
The Tigers should cruise to the ACC title after disposing of their two biggest threats. The long-awaited rise of dual-threat quarterback DJ Uiagalelei — who has 11 touchdowns and one interception this season after nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season — will put Clemson back in the playoff.
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Washington State (+13) over USC
Cam Ward’s interception issues are a concern for the Cougars against the Trojans, who lead the nation in turnover margin, but USC quarterback Caleb Williams won’t find his day much easier behind an untrustworthy O-line that is certain to struggle against a top-15 pass rush.
Notre Dame (-3.5) over BYU (at Las Vegas)
Sharp money has flooded to the Fighting Irish for good reason. After some early hiccups, Notre Dame should pick up its third straight win behind an aggressive defensive front set to keep Cougars quarterback Jaren Hall out of rhythm.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (-3.5) over Florida State
It looks like a trap, but I’m jumping in anyway. The Seminoles fumbled their biggest test of the season at home and now head to Raleigh, where the ACC’s second-best team hasn’t lost in nearly two calendar years.
Texas A&M (+24.5) over ALABAMA
This looked like it would be a blowout last year, too, when the Aggies followed back-to-back losses — in which they scored a total of 32 points— with an upset of Alabama. With Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young at less than full strength, a talented A&M defense will limit coach Jimbo Fisher’s embarrassment against his former boss.
Best bets: Utah, Washington State, North Carolina State
This season: 33-40-2
2014-21 record: 1,030-970-19