The ugly underdog was true to form last week. The Iowa Hawkeyes never looked as if they belonged on the same field as the Michigan Wolverines, who covered the spread in a breezy 27-14 win. Such is the life when you’re Dumpster diving with some of these college football underdogs. Iowa joins Akron in the “you’re dead to me” pile, while Central Michigan remains No. 1 in our hearts.
This Saturday, we leave America’s Breadbasket and head to Music City for an SEC showdown between No. 9 Mississippi (5-0) and Vanderbilt (3-2). The Rebels are 17.5-point favorites on the road and the Over/Under is sitting at 61.5 points.
It has been a wonderful start to the season for Ole Miss, which came into the year with an Over/Under of 7.5 wins. The Rebels are just three wins shy of that mark already, but they’ve played a relatively light schedule out of the gates and have covered the spread in only two of their five wins.
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With all due respect to Troy, Central Arkansas, Tulsa and Georgia Tech, Mississippi has really only faced one true test this season, and that was a home game against Kentucky. Lane Kiffin’s side won that battle, 22-19, and vaulted into the top 10 because of it.
That seems a little rich, considering the quality of competition. Collin Wilson’s Action Network Power Ratings agree with that notion, as he has Ole Miss as the 18th-best team in the nation. That’s still a long way from Vanderbilt, which is ranked 100th by the Action Network, but it just goes to show that the mainstream perception of Ole Miss right now is likely a bit high.
On the other hand, the sentiment around Vanderbilt has certainly taken a hit over the past two weeks, in which it was blown out by Wake Forest and Alabama. The early season wins over Hawaii, Elon, and Northern Illinois are now firmly in the rear-view mirror for Vandy, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some reason for optimism.
All silver linings at Vanderbilt Stadium stem from freshman quarterback AJ Swann.
Swann has proven to be a far more efficient passer than Michael Wright, though Wright is dynamic when he takes off and runs. Still, the ceiling seems pretty high on Swann, who boasts a 58 percent completion percentage, 567 yards passing, and has thrown six touchdowns and no picks to date.
Whether or not Swann can continue to roll remains to be seen, but he does profile as a game manager in a contest that will likely feature two rush-heavy attacks.
Ole Miss has been stellar moving the ball on the ground this season and Vanderbilt’s numbers against the run are rough, but a lot of that stems from giving up 228 rushing yards to Alabama.
The Rebels likely will try to exploit that weakness on Saturday, as only 13 teams in the country boast a higher rush rate than Ole Miss this season. That’s good news when you’re backing a big underdog because it keeps the clock moving.
Vanderbilt also boasts an above-average rush rate and ranks inside the top-45 in rushing success rate and line yards. The Commodores can have some success on offense against a decent, but not great Ole Miss defense.
Any time you’re getting 17.5 points, you know it’s going to be a painful watch, but this is a classic sell-high spot on a team that has surged into the top 10 thanks to a soft schedule.
Go with Vanderbilt +17.5.