Movie trailers can be fun, but they often aren’t a good barometer for the quality of an entire film. There can be great previews for terrible movies, or dull ones for what turn out to be highly entertaining flicks.
One half of one NFL game only provides a sliver of information as to what the entire season holds. One half of one game is 30 minutes of football, in a season 1,020 minutes long (60 minutes each for 17 games, not counting any overtime). For comparison, imagine one continuous 3-minute scene is used as the preview for a 100-minute movie. That is essentially the same — a random 3 percent sample of the whole.
That is what we have of the pairing of the rookie Steelers combo of quarterback Kenny Pickett and wide receiver George Pickens — a movie trailer’s worth of data to try to project the quality of the rest of the film.
The good news is, at least the trailer looks good. Heading into Week 4, with Mitchell Trubisky at QB, Pickens had just five total catches on 12 total targets for 65 total yards with no touchdowns. That is one just “OK” game, but spread across three, it is irrelevant on the fantasy front.
It didn’t get much better in the first half last week, when Pickens hauled in two more receptions for 21 yards. Even if it was on pace to be his best day, that’s like ranking the best “Hunger Games” rip-off — the bar is frighteningly low.
But then coach Mike Tomlin pulled Trubisky in favor of Pickett to start the second half. And Pickens’ fortunes changed as well. The rookie receiver caught four of four targets from the rookie QB (and had another incomplete target erased by penalty).
And those four targets weren’t just of the dink-and-dunk variety. After a 5-yard grab, the next three went for 13, 26 and 27, totaling 81 yards. That’s 4-for-81 in one half. That projects to 8-for-162 over a game.
So in one half he dwarfed his hypothetical output compared to his first three games combined. That is one exciting movie trailer.
But a trailer does not equal a finished film. So fantasy managers are forced to try to evaluate the rest of the season based on that 3 percent sample size. And the Madman thinks this is a situation worthy of some investment. He is rostered in just a bit above half of leagues. If you can get him, do it. But you don’t have to rush him into your lineup, especially this week.
The Bills are one of the five toughest so far against opposing wide receivers, having given up just two WR touchdowns. This could present problems for Pickens in coverage and Pickett in having time to get him the ball.
But if desperate, there is a sliver of daylight for a decent game: If the Steelers were to fall behind, the gameflow could work in Pickens’ favor — with the Steelers passing much more often.
So buy a ticket to the Pickens show. But don’t race to the theater just yet.
Big Weeks
Damien Harris RB, Patriots, vs. Lions (FanDuel $7,200/DraftKings $5,600)
Leaning Harris over Rhamondre Stevenson for better TD probability vs. a Lions D that has allowed multiple RB scores in three of four games.
Khalil Herbert RB, Bears, at Vikings (FD $7,100/DK $5,900)
Even if David Montgomery plays, not expecting a full workload, so Herbert will get a good share. Vikings have struggled against the run (four TDs allowed to running backs so far).
Tyler Lockett WR, Seahawks, at Saints (FD $6,800/DK $5,600)
Has been surprisingly solid with Geno Smith at QB. Keep playing him as long as it lasts. Plus, Saints D hasn’t been great vs. the pass.
Robert Woods WR, Titans, at Commanders (FD $5,900/DK $5,200)
Got nine targets two weeks ago and a score last week. With Treylon Burks doubtful, could get extra looks vs. poor Washington pass D.
Small Weeks
Matthew Stafford QB, Rams, vs. Cowboys (FD $7,400/DK $6,400)
Struggling so far this year, and now faces a Dallas defense that puts significant pressure on QBs. Keep him benched until he has a get-well game.
Ezekiel Elliott RB, Cowboys, at Rams (FD $6,200/DK $5,800)
Getting more volume than expected and still underwhelming. Now faces top defense vs. fantasy RBs. Rams have given up just one TD to opposing RBs this season.
Rashaad Penny RB, Seahawks, at Saints (FD $6,900/DK $5,300)
Last week’s breakout is likely an anomaly. Don’t expect a repeat against a Saints D that hasn’t allowed a RB score since Week 1.
Dalton Schultz TE, Cowboys, at Rams (FD $4,800/DK $3,400)
He has been a bust and battled injuries so ar. It likely won’t get better this week against an LA squad that hasn’t allowed a tight end TD. Stay patient.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS content:
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (12 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $20K
Pot: $200K
Drew’s Crew
QB — Jalen Hurts (Phi, at Ari) $8,100
RB — Eno Benjamin (Ari, vs. Phi) $4,600
RB — Kareem Hunt (Cle, vs. LAC) $6,000
WR — Terry McLaurin (Was, vs. Ten) $6,200
WR — Greg Dortch (Ari, vs. Phi) $5,100
WR — Drake London (Atl, at TB) $5,900
TE — Dallas Goedert (Phi, at Ari) $4,700
Flex — Mike Evans (TB, vs. Atl) $6,900
DST — Seahawks (Sea, at NO) $2,500
Wilk’s Warriors
QB — Zach Wilson (NYJ, vs. Mia) $5,300
RB — James Robinson (Jax, vs. Hou) $6,300
RB — Devin Singeltary (Buf, vs. Pit) $6,100
WR — DK Metcalf (Sea, at NO) $6,800
WR — Curtis Samuel (Was, vs. Ten) $5,800
WR — Mike Williams (LAC, at Cle) $7,100
TE — Dallas Goedert (Phi, at Ari) $4,700
Flex — Elijah Moore (NYJ, vs. Mia) $5,000
DST — Lions (Det, at NE) $2,500
Season risked: $39
Season winnings: Drew $0, Jarad $0
