Agents, execs estimate the monstrous contract awaiting Aaron Judge
Yankees superstar Aaron Judge won the bet on himself, and won big. The consensus seems to be that the baseline deal Judge will get this winter is $300 million — or $86.5 million more than the Yankees offered in spring. And he may well get more.
Judge was seeking in spring to be in line with Mike Trout’s $36 million annual salary, according to sources, and now the early hints are that the Yankees may accede to his original asking price, and perhaps go even a bit higher. Some suggest he could even threaten Trout’s record $360 million total deal — though if he does, that may have to be elsewhere. The $300 million mark seems to be a more common guess (four agent guesses are below) but some see it going higher.
“He certainly will clear $300 million. But is he closer to $400 million than $300 million? Maybe,” one rival executive says. “He’s that important to the wealthiest team.”
The current belief is that the Yankees prefer not to go to $40 million a year — or certainly not to $400 million total for Judge, who is 30, as they recall the lengthy deals for 30-somethings Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, and certainly their own Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees envision the main competition coming from the Giants and maybe the Cubs and Dodgers (though LA is known to prefer shorter deals at higher AAVs; Bryce Harper didn’t go for that when they tried $160 million for four). But of course, you never know in free agency.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman conceded there’s a “pot of gold” awaiting Judge following a season in which he set the AL home run record, nearly won the Triple Crown and carried a depleted Yankees team to the AL East title, which will surely culminate in the MVP award. The general rule is this: If you do something that triggers talk of Babe Ruth (and Roger Maris), you’ve done something special.
Cashman declined to elaborate exactly what his “pot of gold” comment meant, but he added to The Post, “He’s put himself in a good position. Good for him. And good for us. He helped us to bang the win column 99 times.”
Cashman indicated they’d be in touch when the season ends, and added, “We’d love to keep him if we can.”
Hard to imagine they can afford to let him leave. And many in baseball also believe it would be best for MLB if he stayed in pinstripes. “If the Yankees get within striking distance, I hope he stays,” the executive says. While Judge is of course under no obligation to consider anything but himself, they believe it behooves him to stay, too.
Hypothetically, “If the Giants are at $370 million and the Yankees $330 million, he’d be crazy to leave the Yankees,” the exec suggests.
The exec’s prediction is in line with agents polled.
Agent 1: $350M; $400M max.
Agent 2: $315M-$360M.
Agent 3: Eight times $37.5M for $300M.
Agent 4: $300M announced ($277M with deferrals).
Whatever the final number is, Judge is golden.
Could Judge go crosstown?
The Mets haven’t necessarily ruled out taking a shot at Judge, but there are three major impediments to such a pursuit: 1) The Mets figure, probably correctly, that it’d be a long shot he’d move from The Bronx to Queens, 2) they have seven important free agents of their own, and 3) they may not want to risk initiating a fight with the Yankees.
As to that last point, one rival executive says, flatly, “They wouldn’t want to start a war with the Yankees.” It’s an era of good feeling now, as Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner was a big early proponent of Steve Cohen getting the Mets.
“You should be able to build a pretty good team at $300 million,” Cohen said on The Post’s “The Show” podcast. “If you can’t do that, that’s a problem.” And the Mets did show some restraint at the trade deadline. With their payroll now at an estimated $299 million, interest in bringing back many of their own big free agents, including Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, may also inhibit their chances for a Judge deal.
The Mets could surely use some extra punch in the lineup, as the Mets never found that extra bat they sought. But the biggest hurdle, of course, is that it’s hard to see Judge leaving the Yankees for the Mets. If the Mets were to get a clear signal he’d consider it, then maybe the equation changes. But until that happens, a Judge move to the Mets remains the longest of long shots.
Would the Yankees go for deGrom?
A Yankees play for deGrom would be quite the headline grabber. But the Yankees believe that if deGrom leaves the Mets, it’s likely because he doesn’t like New York. So it’s no surprise, one league source says, “The Yankees aren’t going after deGrom.”
DeGrom has never said anything negative about New York publicly, but some could see him opting for a team closer to his Deland, Fla., home, geographically or in spirit.
The Rangers are one team expected to make a play for deGrom, who will opt out of his current deal that guarantees only $30.5 million for 2023 (plus a club option for $32.5 million for 2024), as he has said multiple times.
