Republican Lee Zeldin now trails Democrat Kathy Hochul by only 4 points ahead of the Nov. 8 election, a major new poll released Tuesday finds.
The Quinnipiac College survey — with a margin of error of 2% — shows Gov. Hochul with 50% support among likely voters to 46% for Zeldin, the Long Island congressman.
Hochul leads in New York City 59% to 37%.
But the race is very tight in the suburbs with Zeldin receiving 50 percent and Hochul at 49 percent.
Zeldin leads upstate 52% to 44%.
“In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive. Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul’s narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her,” said Quinnipiac pollster Mary Snow.
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing New York State today, crime — the major plan of the Republican challenger — ranked first among likely voters at 28% followed by inflation at 20% and protecting democracy at 14 %.
Zeldin has blasted Hochul over rising crime and alleged pay-to-play schemes involving campaign donors.
Hochul has fallen back to hammering Zeldin over his ties to former President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in New York, and his anit-abortion stance. Zeldin has recently put out an ad affirming he “will not” change abortion protections in New York if elected.
The Quinnipiac survey is the latest in a series of polls that has showed the race tightening with Zeldin closing the gap with Hochul.
The incumbent held a 52% to 41% lead over her GOP challenger in a Siena College poll released earlier Tuesday. Zeldin picked up ground in the suburbs there.
And a Marist College poll released last week showed the governor ahead by just 8 points among New Yorkers who were definitely planning on casting ballots.
The tightening race spurred the RealClearPolitics website to redefine the race as a “toss-up” last weekend despite Hochul’s big cash advantage in a state where registered Democrats outnumber GOP voters by roughly two-to-one.
Hochul, the former lieutenant governor, became the state’s leader last year after former three-term Democrat Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual misconduct accusations under the threat of impeachment.
Meanwhile, the Q poll found Democrat incumbent Sen. Chuck Schumer, seeking a fifth term, leads his Republican challenger Joe Pinion 54% to 42%.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,617 New York State likely voters from October 12th – 16th. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Zeldin said the Quinnipiac poll shows he’s gaining momentum and vowed to pull off an upset.
“We’ve consistently been gaining massive ground on Hochul as New Yorkers witness first hand her abysmal record on the issues more important to them – crime, the economy, corruption and more. Every day, all day, we’ve been ALL IN, all across the state, communicating directly with voters about the issues that matter most to them,” Zeldin said in a statement.
“The polls have continued to show that our message is resonating, and on Tuesday, November 8th, they’re going to elect a new Governor to Save Our State and restore New York to glory.”
Former Republican three-term Sen. Al D’Amato said Zeldin is benefitting from the disgust over crime and a faltering economy.
“People are not happy and that’s why Zeldin has a real chance to win,” said D’Amato.
He said working-class Democrats may sit out the race.
Some independent observers also said the closeness of the governor’s race was good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats competing in seven battleground House seats in New York that could determine which party controls Congress.
Dave Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report, tweeted: “More blue state woes for Dems: if Hochul’s (D) lead is anywhere in this range (4-11%), Zeldin (R) is likely leading in every battleground House district – and there are seven of them.”
Quinnipiac had Cuomo with a 23-point lead over GOP challenger Marc Molinaro at this same point in the 2018 election for governor, 58% to 35%.
Cuomo ended up winning 59% to 36%.
Quinnipiac pollster Mary Snow said Zeldin has made this a competitive race by winning over registered independent voters not affiliated with a political party. Independents are breaking 57% for Zeldin ot 37% for Hochul.
She noted the crime issue resonated across groups of all voters, with even Democrats ranking it as the second most important issue on their list.
The poll revealed a gender gap.
Hochul, New York’s first female governor, led with 57% support from women to 39% for Zeldin. Still, that’s less of a gender gap than in some other polls.
Conversely, Zeldin led Hochul handily among men — 55% to 41%.
One political strategist said the Quinnipiac poll is an outlier because it undercounts Democratic voters.
“Quinipiac’s poll says that just 39% of voters are going to be Democratic and 31% are Independent, I just don’t understand that,” said consultant Chris Coffey.
“The Q poll is out of whack with past and current elections. There will be more Democrats voting and they will vote for Gov. Hochul,” he said.
The Hochul campaign insisted she’s on track to win, noting that all polls show her in the lead.
“Despite $8 million in outside spending from right-wing groups pushing baseless lies, Governor Hochul maintains a double-digit lead against her opponent. Even in today’s Quinnipiac poll, which substantially undercounted Democrats, Governor Hochul continues to receive support from fifty percent of New Yorkers and we are confident in our ability to turn out voters in every community,” said Hochul campaign spokesman Jerrel Harvey.
“With just three weeks until Election Day, the governor isn’t taking anything for granted and will continue to contrast her strong record of results with Lee Zeldin’s MAGA agenda.”