Astros are lucky … to be this good
The Astros lucked their way to yet another victory Saturday night in Game 3 of the ALCS, and these lucky dogs are now only a win away from going to their fourth fortunate World Series in six serendipitous years.
They have beaten the Yankees in three straight games in the ALCS and eight of 10 times the two American League powerhouses have hooked up this year. The Astros have won all six games they have played this postseason, after somehow lucking their way to 106 wins in the regular season.
And they’re one victory away from knocking the Yankees out of the postseason derby for the fourth time in eight years.
The Astros — 5-0 winners Saturday night in The Bronx — were lucky enough to play a near-perfect game and outperform the Yankees in every facet before a sold-out Yankee Stadium crowd. And they also were lucky to be playing a team with no .300 hitters this postseason (and five guys batting below .100), a DH who hasn’t had a hit in a month and a rotation of three shortstops, two of whom barely played that key position in the bigs before this ALCS.
Can you believe how lucky these sons of a guns are?
Break after break goes the Astros’ way. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole listed three of 96 pitches that weren’t perfectly precise in his usually excellent playoff performance — a changeup to Alex Bregman, a curve to Kyle Tucker and a pitch that got a tiny bit too much plate to Chas McCormick. And naturally, all three Astros were lucky enough to turn them into productive at-bats, two hits and a walk.
And the Astros were extra fortunate that Cole was removed when he was throwing well, replaced by Lou Trivino with the Yankees down only two runs and the bases loaded in the sixth inning. Cole seemed slightly surprised to be taken out, and the rest of us were surprised manager Aaron Boone went with his fourth or fifth option in the game-on-the-line situation.
After Houston’s 3-2 victory in Game 2, Yankees starter Luis Severino pointed out multiple times that the Astros “got lucky.”
They just keep getting luckier.
The Hall of Fame baseball executive Branch Rickey was known for saying “luck is the residue of design.” But the Astros hadn’t come into existence when Rickey was uttering those words. So it may not apply to them. Rickey is one of the greatest figures in the history of baseball. But I remain unconvinced.
Sure, the Astros have reached six straight league championship series. But I’m going to have to see them do it many more years before I start to consider whether I might believe some of it.
The wind undoubtedly aided the Astros in Game 2, and this time it was the short porch. McCormick’s two-run home run even struck the top of the wall before flying over.
The Yankees continued to hit in bad luck against Astros starter Cristian Javier, who luckily threw the first seven innings of a no-hitter the last time he passed through town. This time the Yankees even amassed a hit against Javier. But as luck would have it, it wasn’t enough.
The Astros are lucky to have seven good-to-great starters and a seemingly endless supply of arms in the bullpen. The Astros’ luck seems to be a never-ending thing, as it has gone on all series, and really, over the eight years these teams have been facing each other in postseasons.
The Astros were fortunate, too, that arguably the Yankees’ two best defenders allowed a ball to drop, one that either center fielder Harrison Bader or right fielder Aaron Judge could have caught. As luck would have it, McCormick, the Astros’ No. 9 hitter, was up next, and he hit that fortunate home run that was all they needed.
The Yankees are hitting .165 this postseason and have struck out 41 times in the past three games. The only way they ever are able to score is when they hit it over the fence, which they’ve done 11 times this postseason. It would be one more, but Judge’s drive in Game 2 — 106 mph off the bat — came up just a foot or two short due to wind currents in the open-air version of Minute Maid Park.
In Game 3, Giancarlo Stanton hit a rocket, but it only went for a double since he wasn’t fortunate enough to lift it. It was, however, easily the hardest hit ball of the game at 110.9 mph according to baseballsavant.com, much harder than McCormick’s 103.8 mph homer.
This is the second straight game in which the Yankees won the hard-hit and velocity battles. Cole, the Yankees’ ace, consistently threw with more velocity than Javier, reaching 99.5 mph. And if not for that one unfortunate misplay in the outfield, it would have been a draw on defense.
Come to think of it, maybe the Astros aren’t all that lucky.
Maybe it’s just that the Yankees are extremely unlucky — to keep having to play the unbelievably deep and talented Astros.