PHILADELPHIA — Whatever else the Mets do in strategizing to be a champion next season, the most vital agenda item — and this is by far, not even close — is that they lose 8-5 on May 23, 2023 at Colorado to drop to 23-32 and fall 10 games out in the NL East.
You’re welcome, Mets.
Obviously, they can re-sign Jacob deGrom and/or Edwin Diaz and/or Brandon Nimmo. They can elevate Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez to prominent roles. They can import Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani.
But let’s be clear, the only way to emerge from the NL East to win a pennant — and potentially more than that — is to stink for the first third of the season. It is a copycat league after all and the Mets may soon be playing in the same division as the last three World Series winners from a full 162-game season.
And the most distinct characteristic of the 2019 Nationals, 2021 Braves and 2022 Phillies is they were awful for the first three months of a season. The 2019 Nationals were 19-31 through May 23, 10 games out of first with the NL’s second-worst record. They were thinking of firing manager Davey Martinez. Some wondered if they would trade Max Scherzer.
The 2021 Braves were 30-35 through June 16, eight games out of first with the NL’s fifth-worst record. On that date, Fangraphs gave the 36-25 Mets an 88.7 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 12.7 chance to win the World Series compared to 12.0 and 0.7 for the Braves.
The 2022 Phillies were 21-29 through May 31, 12 ½ games out of first with the NL’s fifth-worst record. Manager Joe Girardi was fired. Fangraphs gave the Phillies a 19.4 percent chance to make the playoffs and 1.2 percent to win the title compared to the Mets’ 10.7 championship percentage.
If you add the low point of these three teams — because they came roughly one-third of the way through the schedule — it is the near equivalent of a 162-game season at 70-95. So their average record at their low point was 23-32, 10 games out. The average score to fall to their low point was 8-5. The Mets’ 55th game next year is May 23 in Colorado.
Again, you’re welcome.
OK, we can all take our tongues out of our cheeks now. Obviously, the Mets are not going to plan to be awful for two months next year just because the 2019 Nationals and 2021 Braves reversed afterward to championships and the 2022 Phillies did so and through Tuesday were leading the World Series two games to one over the Astros.
But it really is a copycat sport. So is there anything that can be gleaned from three NL East teams that, among other things, all eliminated the heavily favored Dodgers en route to the pennant:
1. The loss of a star can be overcome. After the 2018 season, the Nationals lost Bryce Harper to the Phillies via free agency. That they went on to win the World Series without Harper was reminiscent of the Mariners winning 116 games in 2001 after Alex Rodriguez left in free agency.
On July 10, 2021, the Braves lost their best player when Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL. They went 44-29 the rest of the regular season without him to win the NL East. On June 25, 2022, Harper fractured his left thumb. He missed two months and in those 52 games Philadelphia went 32-20, and from out of to into playoff position.
The Mets were mainly blessed with positional health in 2022, especially for Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. But when Starling Marte went down late with his own fractured finger, the Mets were shaken, especially in the sweep in Atlanta that cost them the division. They also must brace this offseason for significant loss unless they intend to retain deGrom, Diaz and Nimmo.
2. A difference-making lefty hitter is invaluable. Since we mention Harper’s absence on the 2019 Nationals and, for two months with the 2022 Phillies, his presence should be noted in these playoffs. He has been Reggie-esque. He is thriving in the moment writ large (the postseason) and small (huge spots in games).
Juan Soto did this in Harper’s absence for the 2019 Nationals and Freddie Freeman did so for the 2021 Braves — and Kyle Schwarber is providing an excellent lefty co-star for Harper now.
The volume of righty power pitching is overflowing, especially from the pen. The velocity goes up this time of year — during the season non-cutter fastballs averaged 93.7 mph; it was 95.3 in the postseason. So, if you lack a game-changing lefty option that combines superb bat-to-ball skills with power, it really resonates. Plus it allows the other team to game-plan easier to deal with a lineup.
Is the switch-hitting Lindor this kind of lefty presence? Actually, how is it possible that the short-porch Yankees have viewed righties who could hit to right as the equivalent of real diversification and lived without an aircraft carrier lefty in the middle? Anthony Rizzo is good. The Yankees need better from that side. So do the Mets. So when they become available like Harper, Freeman, Corey Seager, etc., don’t ignore them.
3. A huge trade deadline move is not a must. Billy Eppler has been clobbered for not doing enough at the deadline. But the Mets GM made the same kind of targeted, smaller moves enacted by the three NL champs discussed here. It just worked out better for the:
2019 Nationals — Daniel Hudson (Hunter Strickland was a disaster).
2021 Braves — Famously replaced Acuna with four outfield acquisitions: Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler.
2022 Nationals — Brandon Marsh, David Robertson, Edmundo Sosa and Noah Syndergaard.
The impact that Marsh and Sosa, for example, have made on the Phillies’ tenuous defense was greater than what Tyler Naquin, Darin Ruf and Daniel Vogelbach had on the length of the Met lineup.
