Zach Wilson must prove he can be threat through air for Jets’ stretch run
Zach Wilson is a quandary and a contradiction wrapped in his No. 2 green-and-white Jets jersey.
The Jets hope, as they embark on their final eight games after an eye-opening (if unexpected) 6-3 start, that Wilson doesn’t become something else as they chase a first playoff berth in 12 seasons: A liability.
Former NFL coach Bill Parcells always judged quarterbacks by two things: wins and getting their teams into the end zone.
Wilson is 5-1 as a starter this season, which is, of course, the most important statistic of all.
But there are some reasons for potential concern going forward. In his 167 pass attempts this season, Wilson has thrown only four touchdown passes. Over a 17-game season, that projects to just 11 touchdown passes, a pace that’s likely not going to be enough if the Jets are going to be a proper threat in January.
Wilson, for his impressive won-loss record, has not been getting the offense into the end zone often enough. Only five AFC teams and five NFC teams have produced fewer points than the 196 the Jets have scored this season.
To be fair to Wilson, he’s just 23 years old and only 19 starts into his career.
But the immediate success of recent high-draft-pick quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow can become a curse when you’re the No. 2-overall pick in the draft as Wilson was in ’21.
And, the Jets have suddenly (if unexpectedly) morphed into a win-now mode. That has turned this season, which began as a show-us-who-you-are referendum for Wilson has become much, much more than a developmental year with the playoffs within tantalizing reach.
Make no mistake: The Jets’ formula — terrific defense and a really good running game — has been successful through nine games.
But they’re likely going to need more, beginning Sunday at Gillette Stadium in their second meeting in a month with the 5-4 Patriots.
New England coach Bill Belichick, as he surely did before the teams’ first meeting (a 22-17 Patriots win on Oct. 30), is likely telling his defense that if it shuts down the Jets running game Wilson won’t be able to beat them with his right arm.
The Patriots are almost certain to stack the box with eight (and sometimes more) defenders and dare Wilson to beat them through the air.
The question then becomes this: What is the Jets’ confidence level that they can win games on the strength of Wilson’s passing prowess?
“Extreme confidence,” Jets receiver Braxton Berrios said.
“Ultimate confidence,” Jets center Connor McGovern echoed.
Wilson, who’s never thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game and has thrown for two only five times in 19 games, has provided some evidence that he can sling it around when needed. The way he played in the 24-20 comeback victory over the Steelers on Oct. 2 — which also happened to be his first start of the season after coming back from a preseason knee injury — was Exhibit A.
Wilson played his worst game of the season in the loss to the Patriots last month, throwing three interceptions, the last two of which were careless heaves into the New England secondary. Oddly, that game was the first and only time Wilson as thrown for 300 or more yards (355) in his career.
Jets head coach Robert Saleh said Wilson’s critics “are kind of holding him hostage to four, five plays that he had against New England.”
The week after the loss to the Patriots, Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur did a terrific job of dialing back what he asked Wilson to do, particularly with downfield reads, and emphasized Wilson getting rid of the ball quicker with faster, making more decisive throws.
That led to one of the best performances of his career in a 20-17 upset win over the Bills, against whom Wilson was 18 of 25 (his highest completion percentage of his career at 72.0) for 154 yards with one touchdown and no turnovers.
As efficient as those numbers were, they weren’t exactly carry-the-team-on-your-shoulders numbers, and that’s something we haven’t seen from Wilson in his 19 career starts.
So far, the Jets haven’t asked him — or needed him — for that.
“Zach’s going to do what it takes to win,” McGovern said. “He understands he doesn’t have to throw 50 times and put up four touchdowns in the air to win games right now the way this team is playing, and he’s totally cool with doing that.”
The question is how long can the Jets continue to win this way?