Entering the season, Jalen Hurts was both the hottest and most polarizing name in the NFL MVP betting market. Three months later, he’s the prohibitive favorite to win it.
The Eagles quarterback finally vaulted into first place in the MVP race after another stellar showing in Week 14, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another in a 48-22 win over the rival Giants. That continued the meteoric rise for Hurts, who’s now dealing as the -165 favorite at BetMGM over previous favorite Patrick Mahomes (+175) — ending the former MVP winner’s six-week reign atop the oddsboard.
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In many ways, it felt like a matter of time before Hurts seized the top spot with the way he’s led his team this season. Entering Week 15, the Eagles (12-1) are the only team with fewer than three losses thanks to the steady play of their third-year passer, who has finished with at least 300 total yards or three touchdowns in nine of Philly’s 13 games this season.
Of course, it wasn’t always so obvious that Hurts would blossom into one of the league’s brightest stars. The former second-round pick was priced as high as 50/1 at some shops this summer and entered the season as a 25/1 dart throw at most books. Even that felt generous after he finished with just 3,144 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and eight wins in his first full season as a starter in 2021.
Incredibly, he’s already surpassed all three totals through just 13 games. And it hasn’t taken that long to realize an MVP-caliber season was brewing for the dual-threat star.
After a so-so start in Week 1, Hurts was unstoppable in a Week 2 prime-time win over the Vikings, when he threw for 333 yards and rushed for two touchdowns. A week later, he torched the Commanders through the air (340 yards, three TDs) to announce himself as a legitimate MVP contender, and he’s hardly skipped a beat en route to ultimately earning front-runner status.
Still, his candidacy is somewhat unusual when compared to recent MVP winners. While Hurts leads the league in passer rating (108.4), he ranks 10th in passing yards (3,157) and is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (22). Even Lamar Jackson, whose historic dual-threat production helped him earn unanimous MVP honors in 2019, led the league in passing touchdowns (36) that season.
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Jackson also led in passing touchdown rate (9.0 percent) and QBR (83.0), which has become almost mandatory for MVP winners in recent years. Since 2016, five of the last six players to win the award also led the NFL in both metrics — the only exception was Hurts’ predecessor, Carson Wentz, who led the league in both stats in 2017 but saw his presumptive MVP campaign cut short with a torn ACL in Week 14.
Hurts currently ranks fifth in passing touchdown rate (5.7 percent) and fourth in QBR (70.4), but he’s made up for it in other areas. His three interceptions are the fewest among all 33 qualified passers, and he ranks sixth in rushing touchdowns (10) and 15th in yards per carry (4.9) — a key reason why Philly boasts the NFL’s most prolific scoring offense (29.7 ppg).
There’s always a chance Hurts stumbles in the final four games of the season, though it would take a Herculean effort to rattle the MVP favorite, who has rarely been threatened behind the Eagles’ phenomenal offensive line. It helps that Philadelphia will likely be favored in three of its final four games and seems certain to lock up the best record in the league by season’s end.
That should be enough for Hurts to secure the league’s top honor, even with Mahomes hot on his trail amid a more “conventional” MVP campaign. Circle the Eagles’ Week 16 test with the Cowboys on your betting calendar; if Hurts shines bright in that contest, even in a loss, this race should be all but decided.