History is more than just a class you take in school. It is a record of past human achievements and failures. It is a guidepost of behaviors to mimic or avoid. And it is one of the most accurate prognosticators of the future.
Of all the indicators you can apply to any given situation, routinely the one that is most often correct is past performance.
There’s a reason Mets fans are always waiting for a calamity to undermine their season. There is a reason the phrase “same old Jets” exists. There is a reason no one trusts the Dolphins when they play in cold temperatures.
Just once since 2016 has Miami scored more than 16 points in a game played in near-freezing temperatures, so chances are the Dolphins aren’t going to score a lot of points in their next game in freezing weather.
What awaits the Dolphins at Buffalo on Saturday night is the kind of weather that give Dolphins fans those Grinch feelings while visions of sugar plums dance in Bills fans’ heads. The kickoff temp is expected to be in the low 30s, dipping into the 20s during the game.
Oh, and possible snow squalls. Did we mention the snow squalls?
Call us a bunch of Scrooges, but this gives us pause about playing our Dolphins this week in the fantasy playoffs. Granted, all roster decisions are made based on your alternative options — you don’t sit Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle because of weather fears if it means you have to start D.J. Moore or Allen Lazard. But for Chris Olave or DeVonta Smith? That makes us think.
It isn’t that we have some inside knowledge that Hill hates the cold, or Waddle gets finger cramps when the temps drop, or that Tua Tagovailoa is an alien powered by tropical rays from the yellow Earth sun. None of that we know to be true.
But we do have some history. Not so much of these specific players in these specific conditions, but much more about other Dolphins teams that have ventured into similar conditions.
In 2016, the Dolphins won a road game against the Jets, 34-13, with a kickoff temperature of 35 degrees. Since that game, Miami has played six times in games that were 35 degrees or colder at kickoff, according to Pro Football Reference. In those games, as a team, they have averaged 16 points per game. That is not a total that yields much fantasy production.
The quarterbacks have averaged 261.7 yards passing, and they have a total of three touchdowns and 10 interceptions in those six games.
So history is telling us: Worry about the passing game. This doesn’t include Raheem Mostert — whose outlook we like if Jeff Wilson misses the game with a hip injury.
We’re also not as worried about the Bills counterparts, because they don’t share the same history of cold-weather turmoil.
But the others? We’re going to learn from history and proceed with caution.
Big weeks
Dak Prescott QB, Cowboys, at Jaguars (FanDuel $7,500/DraftKings $6,200)
Since Week 5, the only QB who hasn’t scored at least the league average (15.9) against the Jags is Russell Wilson. The opposing QB average in the eight games since is 22.7.
Pierre Strong Jr. RB, Patriots, at Raiders (FD $4,500/DK $4,000)
Rhamondre Stevenson is looking unlikely to play. Damien Harris is closer, but reports suggest he is not close to 100 percent. Strong could be the guy who carries the Pats’ ground game again.
Christian Watson WR, Packers, vs. Rams (FD $7,000/DK N/A)
Just a reminder, since he was sort of a new thing then had a bye week: Since Week 10, he is the WR1 overall based on weekly PPR average (24.8). The list of WRs you would start ahead of him is incredibly short.
Rex Burkhead RB, Texans, vs. Chiefs (FD $4,800/DK $4,600)
The whiplash reaction to Dameon Pierce’s likely absence is to pivot toward Dare Ogunbowale. But considering the Texans are likely to be playing from behind against the Chiefs, we like the pass-catching Burkhead better this week.
Small weaks
Deshaun Watson QB, Browns, vs. Ravens (FD $6,800/DK N/A)
We know. You picked up Watson just because he was available. And now maybe you’re itching to play him. Don’t scratch. He is a next-year thing. Use Trevor Lawrence, Prescott, Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers instead.
Leonard Fournette RB, Buccaneers, vs. Bengals (FD $6,600/DK $5,500)
We don’t like running backs who don’t get carries. He got just four last week, with Rachaad White looking like the new go-to guy. Relying on RB receptions in fantasy playoffs is a bad idea.
Garrett Wilson WR, Jets, vs. Lions (FD $7,800/DK N$6,000)
He gets Zach Wilson back at QB, with Mike White out with injured ribs. In three games with White, Garrett averaged 21.5 in PPR. In seven games with Zach at QB, just 8.4. Don’t count on Garrett this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR, Chiefs, at Texans (FD $7,300/DK $5,800)
Reminder: Before strong fantasy game last week, he was in single digits the previous three. Texans pretty good vs. fantasy WRs, probably because most teams don’t have to pass much to beat them.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun main (10 games)
Type: $9 tourney
Top prize: $20K
Pot: $100K
Drew’s Crew
QB — Dak Prescott (Dal, at Jac) $7,500
RB — Alvin Kamara (NO, vs. Atl) $7,600
RB — Najee Harris (Pit, at Car) $6,600
WR — Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, at TB) $9,000
WR — CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at Jac) $8,100
WR — Chris Moore (Hou, vs. KC) $6,000
TE — Chig Okonkwo (Ten, at LAC) $5,100
Flex — Zay Jones (Jac, vs. Dal) $6,300
DEF — Broncos (Den, vs. Ari) $3,700
Wilk’s Warriors
QB — Justin Herbert (LAC, vs. Ten) $8,300
RB — Miles Sanders (Phi, at Chi) $7,800
RB — Rex Burkhead (Hou, vs. KC) $4,800
WR — Mike Williams (LAC, vs. Ten) $7,200
WR — A.J. Brown (Phi, at Chi) $8,200
WR — Drake London (Atl, at NO) $6,300
TE — Greg Dulcich (Den, vs. Ari) $5,600
Flex — Alvin Kamara (NO, vs. Atl) $7,600
DEF — Lions (Det, at NYJ) $3,800
For late roster chances, follow @NYPost_Loftis and @NYPost_Roto on Twitter
Season risked: $108
Season winnings: Jarad $65, Drew $12
