Kathy Hochul says New York will not recover COVID job losses until 2027
New York’s “weak” jobs recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is worse than previously predicted, Gov. Kathy Hochul revealed in a sobering $227 billion budget address Wednesday.
Hochul said the Empire State won’t fully recover all its job losses tied to the pandemic until 2027 — seven years after the COVID-19 outbreak first started.
Last year, Hochul predicted all the pre-pandemic jobs would be recovered by 2026.
The previous year in 2021, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo anticipated all the pre-pandemic jobs would be recovered in 2025.
Hochul said she moved the goal post because of the slower-than-anticipated pace of the jobs recovery, which significantly trails the nation as a whole.
The analysis, prepared by Hochul’s budget division, said the state had regained just 86.5 percent of its pandemic-related job losses by the end of 2022.
“However, the nation had already recovered all its pandemic-related job losses by August 2022,” the $227 billion budget proposal for the fiscal year starting April 1 said.
“Following an estimated growth of 5.0 percent in 2022, the State’s labor market outlook remains weak. The State’s employment is projected to grow by only 0.7 percent in 2023, with private sector employment growing by 0.8 percent.”
The gloomy jobs forecast blamed the slowing global economy, the stock market’s volatile performance, and an “impending national recession” following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes last year to bring inflation under control.
“As a result of the projected weaker growth, the State is not expected to return to pre-pandemic employment levels until 2027,” Hochul’s budget forecast said.
The forecast doesn’t mention other factors that may impact the lagging jobs picture, including New Yorkers who’ve fled the state, particularly those who can work remotely from anywhere and no longer have to physically be at a New York office or address to be employed.
Critics also have complained that New York’s severe lockdowns during the worst of the pandemic made it harder for businesses to survive.
The lag in New York City’s job recovery in New is primarily tied to sectors that depend on international tourism and business travel — food, hospitality, entertainment and retail in Manhattan’s Central Business Districts where foot traffic is still down from pre-pandemic levels, said Kathryn Wylde, CEO of the NYC Partnership.
“We have also seen a population loss of over 300,000 residents,” Wyde said
Wylde said Hochul’s budget plan addresses a key issue — the shortage of affordable housing, which has contributed to the “significant increase in remote work and outmigration from the city.”
“The Governor’s proposals to improve public safety and provide more mental health resources are also important to restoring confidence among workers and employers which will encourage more job creation,” she said.
Queens Chamber of Commerce President Tom Grech also said improving public safety will help bring more employees back to the offices in the Manhattan business district and provide a boost to merchants and eateries nearby.
