Everyone loves a good comeback story.
Sometimes it’s a team overcoming a big hole in a series, such as the Red Sox digging themselves out of an 0-3 hole in the 2004 ALCS (sorry, Yankees fans) or the 1992 Bills coming back against the Oilers after trailing by 32 points.
Other times it’s players, such as Alex Smith playing football again after nearly losing his right leg, a hobbled Willis Reed returning to the court to inspire his team to a Game 7 victory in the 1970 NBA Finals or 39-year-old Justin Verlander winning a Cy Young Award after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Sometimes, it’s just a player coming off a down year (or years), trying to prove they still have what it takes to compete at a high level.
No one is going to pretend Miami’s Trevor Rogers had a good season in 2022. After finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, he won just four times in 23 starts last year.
He owned a 5.47 ERA and walked 9.4 percent of the batters he faced, the 20th-worst mark among pitchers who threw a minimum of 100 innings. Opponents also hit .272 against him, the 19th-highest in the majors.
But there are reasons why Rogers is among Roto Rage’s favorite arms to target late in drafts this year.
Over his last four starts of 2022, Rogers had a 3.72 ERA, 29.9 percent strikeout rate, 1.09 WHIP and a .233 opponents average. He also had a 3.37 FIP and 2.66 xFIP, which indicates he was unlucky.
Rogers has also looked solid this spring, limiting opponents to a .217 average and maintaining a 1.00 WHIP with a 17-3 strikeout-walk rate. (Just ignore the 10 earned runs, it’s spring training.)
Rogers is still just 25 years old and only one year removed from going 7-8 with a 2.64 ERA, 10.62 strikeouts per nine, .214 opponents average and a 14 percent swinging-strike rate. He had a sophomore slump, it happens. He still has all the talent and upside he had in 2021.
That happens to work out great for fantasy managers because Rogers isn’t being drafted as a top-30 pitcher, the way he was last year. His average draft position of 240.18, according to Fantasy Alarm, makes it worth taking a shot on his bounce-back potential. Considering Miami’s track record for developing young pitchers, Roto Rage believes this is a perfect low-risk, high-reward situation.
Sean Manaea (240.03) is another pitcher who was pretty awful in 2022, posting career-worst marks in ERA (4.96) and homers allowed (29) while with San Diego. His 2.85 walks per nine innings and 1.30 WHIP were his worst marks since 2017, and his 90.3 mph exit velocity ranked in the bottom 8 percent of the majors.
But Roto Rage believes there is hope for the 31-year-old lefty as he moves to San Francisco — and it goes beyond the Giants’ recent history of resuscitating middling careers of pitchers Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani.
Despite the brutal numbers, Manaea’s 12 percent swinging-strike rate (15.6 percent with his changeup and 13.6 percent with his slider) ranked 21st in the majors. That is a good sign, as was the 4.05 xERA and 3.96 xFIP. An even better sign: His velocity has been up this spring, and over 17 ²/₃ innings he had a 14-3 strikeout-walk rate with a 0.96 WHIP and .215 opponents average. If he can stay healthy, keep his velocity up and continue to generate swings and misses, being in San Francisco will be a godsend — and fantasy managers will reap the rewards.
Kenta Maeda of Minnesota (284.4) had a career-worst 4.66 ERA in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of 2022. From 2016-20, however, Maeda was 53-36 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.9 strikeouts per nine. Throughout his career, he has a 13.5 percent swinging-strike rate — and that includes a 20.7 percent rate with his slider, a pitch opposing batters have hit .193 against, and 20.9 percent with his splitter, which opponents have hit .180 against. Sure, we haven’t seen him in a while, but we know what he is capable of doing when healthy.
Here’s one more for you: Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez (283.72) made just 17 starts in what became a roller-coaster 2021 season (4.05 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, career-low 7.5 swinging-strike rate) marred by injuries, and the lefty stepping away from the team for personal reasons. If we go by spring training numbers (no earned runs over 13 innings, 15-2 K-BB, .229 opponent average), the Tigers’ Opening Day starter looks to be worth a flier.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Corbin Burnes, Mil
- Gerrit Cole, NYY
- Max Scherzer, NYM
- Sandy Alcantara, Mia
- Spencer Strider, Atl
- Aaron Nola, Phi
- Shane McClanahan, TB
- Brandon Woodruff, Mil
- Shohei Ohtani, LAA
- Cristian Javier, Hou
- Jacob deGrom, Tex
- Justin Verlander, NYM
- Julio Urias, LAD
- Shane Bieber, Cle
- Luis Castillo, Sea
- Zack Wheeler, Phi
- Dylan Cease, CWS
- Max Fried, Atl
- Kevin Gausman, Tor
- Zac Gallen, Ari
- Yu Darvish, SD
- Framber Valdez, Hou
- Alek Manoah, Tor
- Joe Musgrove, SD
- Carlos Rodon, NYY
- George Kirby, Sea
- Triston McKenzie, Cle
- Robbie Ray, Sea
- Logan Gilbert, Sea
- Blake Snell, SD
- Luis Severino, NYY
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
- Nestor Cortes, NYY
- Kyle Wright, Atl
- Hunter Greene, Cin
- Nick Lodolo, Cin
- Joe Ryan, Min
- Jeffrey Springs, TB
- Pablo Lopez, Min
- Freddy Peralta, Mil
- Lance Lynn, CWS
- Logan Webb, SF
- Jesus Luzardo, Mia
- Chris Sale, Bos
- Lucas Giolito, CWS
- Luis Garcia, Hou
- Charlie Morton, Atl
- Jordan Montgomery, StL
- Alex Cobb, SF
- Reid Detmers, LAA
- Drew Rasmussen, TB
- Brady Singer, KC
- Dustin May, LAD
- Jon Gray, Tex
- Tyler Glasnow, TB
- Sonny Gray, Min
- Kodai Senga, NYM
- Patrick Sandoval, LAA
- Edward Cabrera, Mia
- Nathan Eovaldi, Tex
- Chris Bassitt, Tor
- Hunter Brown, Hou
- Andrew Heaney, Tex
- Tyler Mahle, Min
- Trevor Rogers, Mia
- Jameson Taillon, ChC
- Grayson Rodriguez, Bal
- Jose Urquidy, Hou
- Ross Stripling, SF
- Tony Gonsolin, LAD
- Sean Manaea, SF
- Merrill Kelly, Ari
- Jose Berrios, Tor
- Clarke Schmidt, NYY
- Noah Syndergaard, LAD
- Tyler Anderson, LAA
- Michael Kopech, CWS
- Miles Mikolas, StL
- Jack Flaherty, StL
- Zach Eflin, TB
- Marcus Stroman, ChC
- Carlos Carrasco, NYM
- Roansy Contreras, Pit
- David Peterson, NYM
- Hayden Wesneski, ChC
- Bailey Ober, Min
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Det
- Aaron Civale, Cle
- Justin Steele, ChC
- Taijuan Walker, Phi
- Eric Lauer, Mil
- Steven Matz, StL
- Kyle Bradish, Bal
- Martin Perez, Tex
- Ranger Suarez, Phi
- Tanner Houck, Bos
- Matthew Boyd, Det
- Lance McCullers Jr., Hou
- Brayan Bello, Bos
- Domingo German, NYY
- Kenta Maeda, Min
- Garrett Whitlock, Bos
- Cal Quantrill, Cle
- Mitch Keller, Pit
- Jose Suarez, LAA
- Michael Wacha, SD
- Braxton Garrett, Mia
- MacKenzie Gore, Was
- Yusei Kikuchi, Tor
- Jared Shuter, Atl
- Nick Martinez, SD
- Tylor Megill, NYM
- Brandon Pfaadt, Ari
- Adam Wainwright, StL
- Aaron Ashby, Mil
- Ken Waldichuk, Oak
- Josiah Gray, Was
- Ryan Pepiot, LAD
- Corey Kluber, Bos
- Mike Soroka, Atl
- Graham Ashcraft, Cin
- Johnny Cueto, Mia
- Matt Manning, Det
- Drew Smyly, ChC
- Cole Irvin, Bal
- Ryne Nelson, Ari
Team Name of the Week
Born-Again Cristian