When the NBA laid out the full regular-season schedule way back in August, Thursday’s matchup between the Suns and Nuggets looked like a compelling clash worthy of its prime-time billing.
Instead, it profiles as a blowout between two teams with different motivations in the final days ahead of the postseason.
The Nuggets have already clinched the top seed in the West and could be without two of their top scorers for Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the Suns are still embroiled in a tense race for playoff positioning but have the inside track for the No. 4 seed with the playoffs right around the corner.
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.
Suns vs. Nuggets pick
- Under 224.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Suns vs. Nuggets prediction and analysis
With the NBA regular season ending on Sunday, Thursday’s game marks the third-to-last contest for each of these two teams.
And this gaudy spread should give you an indication of how much it means to both sides.
With Memphis’ loss in New Orleans on Wednesday, the Nuggets clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and home-court advantage through the conference finals, at least.
And while Denver (52-27) could theoretically push to match Boston (55-25) in case of a potential NBA Finals matchup, it’s hardly worth jeopardizing the health of Nikola Jokic (calf) or Jamal Murray (thumb) ahead of the postseason.
It sure looks like both will hit the bench on Thursday, as this betting line simply wouldn’t make any sense with them active.
And while that clearly benefits the Suns, who are still pushing to lock up the No. 4 seed out West, that doesn’t mean they’re worth betting at this price.
In fact, we just saw this play out a week ago, when both Jokic and Murray hit the shelf in a road game against the heavily favored Suns (-9.5).
Sure enough, the Nuggets lost outright but held Phoenix to just 100 points in a 7-point loss – one of eight games they’ve either won outright or lost by single digits in 11 contests without Jokic.
That said, Denver is still 4-7 outright in those 11 games and has very little incentive to push the pace or spring for an outright upset in a game that’s virtually inconsequential for their playoff push.
That makes it hard to take the points here, especially with this team losing five of its last six without its star center.
Instead, an off night for the Nuggets’ top two scorers should spell some value on the under.
Entering Thursday’s tilt, Denver is quietly riding a stellar 9-0-1 run to the under, with three of those games coming with Jokic sidelined.
That’s no coincidence: the Nuggets are scoring an astounding 12.5 points fewer per 100 possessions in those 11 games this year without their two-time MVP, but they’re allowing 2.0 points fewer per 100 possessions without him, too.
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It’s a similar story with Murray, who has improved this team’s offense by 5.7 points per 100 possessions with a similar 2.5-point dip in defensive efficiency when he’s on the floor.
And, as we highlighted before, we saw both players’ impacts on full display when each sat in that 100-93 loss in Phoenix just six days ago.
The Nuggets have scored fewer than 100 points in five of their last six games without Jokic and seven of 11 overall, yet they’ve allowed just 108.8 points per game without him.
That would rank second-best in the league across the entire season. With the Suns riding a 4-1 under run of their own, bet on a sluggish day from these offenses with the postseason mere days away.
Suns vs. Nuggets odds (via BetMGM)
- Suns -10.5 (-110), moneyline -500
- Nuggets +10.5 (-110), moneyline +360
- O/U 224.5 (-110)