Every preseason projection system had the Mets and Yankees roughly with the same record this season. Nothing much had changed two weeks into the schedule — they are both 9-6.
If anything was surprising, the Baseball Prospectus Pecota formula still had the Yankees calculated to win the AL East heading into the weekend despite the Rays’ 13-0 start — but, for example, both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs had Tampa Bay taking the division.
The New York teams will not play their first series against each other until June 13-14 at Citi Field and will conclude their four-game Subway Series a week before the Aug. 1 trade deadline — July 25-26 in The Bronx.
Therefore, I wondered about some other competitions between the two New York clubs that could determine who finishes with the better record this season (that also might be fun to track as the year goes along). Such as:
More homers: Pete Alonso vs. Aaron Judge
Judge set the rookie homer record in 2017 with 52 that Alonso eclipsed in 2019 with 53. Judge hit an AL and New York record 62 homers last season. And, just saying, Alonso has a MLB-leading seven homers (Judge had five).
In the four common seasons in which they have played, Alonso had more homers than Judge in 2019-20, and Judge had more in 2021-22. This is a tiebreaker year (at least for now). Since Alonso’s arrival, he leads MLB with 153 homers. Judge was next at 142. If you had to make a long-term bet on who would finish with more career homers, which way would you go? Both broke into the majors in their age-24 season. Judge, now 31, has 225 career homers, and Alonso has those 153 in his age-28 season.
Higher in Rookie of the Year balloting: Francisco Alvarez vs. Anthony Volpe
Perhaps the question should be: Which player has more time to prove himself in the majors? As opposed to, say, St. Louis’ Jordan Walker, neither the Mets’ nor the Yankees’ top prospect has gotten off to a strong start.
Alvarez would seem to have less time to prove himself, in part because the Mets seem less committed to giving him time to play. They have made it sound as if Tomas Nido will be their primary catcher during the two-ish months Omar Narvaez is expected to miss with a strained calf.
If Alvarez is not going to catch and, thus, not going to play regularly, the Mets have their excuse to return him to Triple-A for more seasoning. The only way he could probably force the Mets to keep him is to hit when given the chance. That would help what currently looks like a weak bottom of the lineup, which includes Nido (no extra-base hits, .107 average). Though perhaps even that would not keep Alvarez in the majors considering the emphasis the Mets (like most teams) put on defense at catching. Will the Mets, at some point, promote veteran Michael Perez to back up Nido or find someone from the outside?
Alvarez is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts, and was 3-for-23 (.130) between his cameo late last season and this early showing this year.
Volpe, after winning the Yankees shortstop job with a brilliant spring, hit his first homer Friday night. He had entered the game with the majors’ 12th-worst batting average (.158) among qualifiers entering the weekend and was striking out 32.6 percent of the time. You know who was 13th-worst? Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who was hitting .162 while striking out 37.5 percent of the time. Henderson was pretty much the consensus top prospect in the game heading into the season and, thus, the AL Rookie of the Year favorite.
It is a reminder that while we call for the prospects to be promoted and play, the major leagues are hard. That’s something to remember as the screaming for Brett Baty, Ronnie Mauricio and Mark Vientos heightens if they continue to thrive at Triple-A while the Mets’ offense struggles.
Volpe has performed competently on defense, and general manager Brian Cashman said before the season that he was the shortstop, implying the Yankees were willing to endure growing pains. Since there is no turning back to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the Yankees would have to think Oswald Peraza could outplay Volpe. That doesn’t feel close to happening.
Loses their job or roster spot first: Eduardo Escobar vs. Josh Donaldson
Escobar had the second-lowest batting average (.114) among qualifiers, as his problems against righty pitching have persisted from last year to this season — he was 2-for-21 (the hit a homer) as a lefty hitter. Baty is a lefty-hitting third baseman who was at .400 with five homers in nine Triple-A games this year.
Unlike Donaldson, Escobar is a well-regarded clubhouse figure, so he brings something beyond playing third base. Donaldson is working his way back from a right hamstring strain. Yankees manager Aaron Boone had been adamant that Donaldson would have a rebound year. But he was 2-for-16 before being placed on the injured list. The Yankees can cover third with mainly DJ LeMahieu, but also Kiner-Falefa and Oswaldo Cabrera.
It feels like ultimately, as though, Hal Steinbrenner is going to have to answer a question about how much money he is willing to eat on Donaldson and Aaron Hicks. Donaldson began this year owed $28 million between 2023 and a buyout on a 2024 option. Hicks was due $31 million over three seasons. With Harrison Bader moving closer to rejoining the Yankees and Franchy Cordero providing to be valuable lefty heft, the decision on Hicks might have to come quickly.
