If predicting the NFL Draft normally feels like throwing at a dartboard then doing so in 2023 could be like aiming blindfolded after enjoying happy hour.
The unusual circumstances of three teams with winning records last season holding top-10 picks, a consensus shallow first-round class of prospects and an increase in smokescreens have left teams less sure than usual when predicting the events that will unfold before their turn on the clock.
Here are The Post’s five bold predictions for a 2023 NFL Draft driven wild by quarterback movement:
1. Four quarterbacks go in the first five picks for the first time ever … and the Texans look foolish
In the common draft era (since 1967), quarterbacks have been the first three picks three times (1971, 1999 and 2020) and four of the first 10 picks once (2018).
Never before has a draft started with four quarterbacks in the top-five picks.
That’s about to change.
Bryce Young is a near-lock to go No. 1 to the Panthers.
The Texans could do the smart thing and pick C.J. Stroud or get cold feet and pivot to a defensive player. (It’s never too-bold to say the Texans will look foolish).
If the Texans go quarterback, the Cardinals go defense.
If they don’t, Arizona creates a bidding war between the Raiders, Titans and any other teams wanting to land Stroud at No. 3.
The Colts – aimless at quarterback since the Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck back-to-back eras ended – get their next prototype with Will Levis at No. 4.
And the Seahawks take advantage of having two first-round picks (No. 5 is their highest since 2009) to select high-ceiling Anthony Richardson, knowing he has a year to develop on the bench after Geno Smith earned another chance to start … but on a contract with a feasible $17.4 million dead-cap charge if replaced in 2024.
2. The Eagles trade for safety Budda Baker and draft defensive tackle Jalen Carter
No one makes a splash like Eagles general manager Howie Roseman.
To commemorate the one-year anniversary of stealing receiver A.J. Brown in a trade with the Titans, Roseman has another “How’d he do it?” moment.
Before quarterback Jalen Hurts’ bigger salary-cap numbers kick in, the Eagles will go all-in.
Most teams picking in the top 10 can’t afford to swing and miss, whereas the defending NFC champions can gamble on the boom-or-bust Carter, who might be the draft’s most-talented player but has on-field (effort) and off-field (arrested on reckless driving and racing charge in connection to a deadly accident) character concerns.
With the Eagles, who always look to draft on the line of scrimmage first, Carter finds two familiar faces who can steer him from bad influences in former Georgia teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean.
With another first-round pick (No. 30) and $19.6 million in salary-cap space, per spotrac.com, to play with, Roseman can trade the Eagles’ second- or third-round pick to get a missing championship piece like the five-time Pro Bowler Baker, who is seeking a new contract and a trade from the Cardinals.
So what that the Eagles already don’t have picks in the fourth, fifth or sixth rounds?
3. Bijan Robinson slips past pick No. 20 and a smart team capitalizes on a trade back
Bias against running back value has jumped the shark.
After leading the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns, Jamaal Williams signed for three years, $12 million.
Pro Bowler Miles Sanders got the biggest free-agent deal (four years, $25 million) (12th-biggest average annual value at the position).
Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are stuck on the franchise tag with fading hopes of a multi-year extension.
The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler is idling on the trade market after leading the NFL in touchdowns from scrimmage the last two years (38).
No running back has been picked higher than No. 24 since Barkley (No. 2) in 2018.
Which team will stray from groupthink to pick a running back? The Falcons at No. 8? Eagles at No. 10? Commanders at No. 16? Robinson is No. 3 on The Post’s Top 100.
It could be up to the Patriots – perhaps after trading down from No. 14 – to keep Robinson from falling into the hands of the rival Bills at No. 27.
4. The Packers finally draft a first-round receiver … to help Jordan Love with a pick that was part of the Aaron Rodgers trade.
Oh, the irony!
Rodgers threw 501 touchdown passes (regular season plus playoffs) for the Packers before one was caught by a former first-round pick (17-year veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis) last season.
To this day, Rodgers has thrown 520 and Lewis’ two receptions stand alone in part because the Packers haven’t used a first-round pick on a receiver since Javon Walker in 2002.
You can imagine that Rodgers will chuckle then when the Packers use the No. 13 pick that belonged to the Jets on receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give Rodgers’ successor Love the best chance to succeed.
No. 13 was part of a first-round pick swap with No. 15 in the trade that brought Rodgers to New York this week.
5. The Ravens draft Hendon Hooker to turn up the heat on Lamar Jackson
The Ravens made at least one trade with their first-round pick in three of the last five drafts, including the last two times picking at No. 22.
The trend continues as they move down from No. 22 with a two-fold plan: Recoup assets to atone for not having a second-round pick and drop as low as possible while remaining in the first round to secure the coveted fifth-year option on Hooker’s contract.
Some scouts think the highly accurate Hooker, 25, might have been a top-10 pick in spite of his age if he had not torn his ACL in late November.
Seeing the writing on the wall after failed attempts to sign Jackson to an extension, the Ravens draft Hooker, who can get healthy as Jackson plays on the franchise tag.
Then the Ravens can decide whether to give Jackson a second franchise tag or turn to Hooker in 2024.
