For the past decade, handicapping the futures market for the men’s side of the French Open has boiled down to one essential question: Does anyone have a hope to beat Rafael Nadal?
For the most part the answer to that question has been a resounding “no,” as the Spaniard has won 14 of the past 18 iterations of this tournament, including last year.
But with Nadal out of the picture this year because of a hip injury, the focus shifts to his heir apparent — Carlos Alcaraz.
Alcaraz, 20, is the betting favorite to lift the Musketeers’ Cup at +155, putting him ahead of Novak Djokovic (+230), Daniil Medvedev (+900) and the ascendant Holger Rune (+950).
It’s wildly impressive that Alcaraz already has reached such lofty status that he’s favored to win a Grand Slam, but that number is too short for a player at this stage of his career.
That doesn’t mean Alcaraz isn’t deserving of being the favorite in this field, it’s just that the value isn’t there.
Especially because you can probably get a similar number later in the tournament because Alcaraz’s path to the finals likely will include tough matches with Stefanos Tsitsipas and Djokovic.
The French Open has been very chalky for the most part, but that’s because Nadal has owned Roland Garros since 2005.
With Nadal sitting on the sidelines, perhaps we see the first true long-shot winner since Gaston Gaudio lifted the trophy as a 50/1 outsider.
2023 Men’s French Open best bets:
Alexander Zverev (+3100, FanDuel): This is a tricky handicap since we haven’t seen Zverev reach his ceiling since returning from injury this year.
Zverev is 0-6 against top-20 players in 2023 and was bounced in the Round of 16 in four consecutive tournaments before the Geneva Open this week.
All that said, Zverev has enjoyed a ton of success at Roland Garros.
He’s made it to the quarterfinals or further in four of the past five years and is coming off back-to-back appearances in the final four.
This number is too good to pass up with Zverev’s history here.
Andrey Rublev (+4500, FanDuel): World No. 7 Rublev has been to seven quarterfinals in his Grand Slam career, including two of the past three French Opens, but has never made it to the semifinals.
It’s a clear hurdle for the Russian, but he’s got plenty of impressive trophies on his mantle — including the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters — and it feels like a matter of time before he breaks through at a Grand Slam.
Taylor Fritz (+9500, FanDuel): Though he has struggled at Roland Garros in his career and isn’t known as a clay-courter, Fritz’s ceiling is high enough that he’s always worth consideration at this number.
That said, Fritz has had some encouraging results on the dirt this season, most notably earning a trip to the semifinals at the Monte Carlo Masters in April.
Fritz has had issues breaking through at Grand Slams, but that reputation is affording us the opportunity to get him at a big price.
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Lorenzo Musetti (+12500, BetMGM): It was not a pretty start to the year for Musetti, but he has seemingly found his form during the European clay-court season.
The Italian went to the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo, the semifinal in Barcelona and has wins over Djokovic, Cam Norrie and Frances Tiafoe over the past few weeks.
Musetti’s draw is brutal — he has got Norrie, Alcaraz and Tsitsipas in his quarter — but if things get chaotic, Musetti has the game to outlast the field.