We’re in the dog days of summer for sports betting, where the only thing to sweat is baseball.
You can lose money on the Mets all summer long, but at least try to spice up your betting life with some non-traditional wagers.
Here’s a good one: The NBA Draft is this week. So, here at the Post, I’ll cover two or three of my favorite 2023 NBA Draft prop bets daily until the first pick is announced on Thursday.
Let’s start with my two favorite draft position over/under props, both available at Bet365.
NBA Draft 2023 pick No. 1
Jordan Hawkins draft position over 15.5 (-200, Bet365)
It pains me to sell Jordan Hawkins. I am a huge fan of his game and loved how he progressed under Dan Hurley at UConn – his off-ball movement and shooting were the primary reason the Huskies won a national title.
Alas, I’m starting to think Hawkins might only be a spot-up shooter.
Hawkins is not a ball-handler and cannot run an offense.
He’s also not uber-athletic, so he’s not a great finisher at the rim; he can shoot, and his gravity will space the floor, but he can’t pump and head to the rim like many other NBA guys.
Sure, Hawkins is an active off-ball defender, but he’s small with a very thin frame, so he’ll likely get targeted relentlessly on defense.
Moreover, that thin frame might hurt him as an off-screen 3-point specialist – running through NBA screens will be much more difficult than in the Big East.
I think there are too many question marks surrounding Hawkins to make him a sure-fire lottery pick, and I think NBA teams agree with me.
At the minimum, the mock draft market agrees. The Action Network’s Vegas Refund has tracked 22 NBA mock drafts so far, and 64% of them have Hawkins going after No. 15.
The Ringer’s draft guide has Hawkins being taken by the Nets at 21st, while The Athletic’s draft guide has him as the 18th-best big board prospect.
I’m starting to think Hawkins profiles better as a second-round pick than a lottery one, and I’m willing to place my hard-earned cash behind that analysis.
NBA Draft 2023 pick No. 2
Ausar Thompson draft position over 5.5 (-320, Bet365)
Rarely do I recommend taking a bet with -320 odds, but the Ausar Thompson draft stock picture is becoming clearer to me by the day.
The top-three picks are locked up (Victor Wembenyama, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller).
Meanwhile, I’m seeing Cam Whitmore’s draft stock skyrocket by the day, leading me to believe he’ll be picked in the top five. I’m also seeing Jarace Walker’s draft stock go up, so he could land in the top-five region.
With Whitmore and Walker’s stocks rising, it automatically decreases Thompson’s, making it much more unlikely he’ll be taken among the top-five picks.
In fact, both Thompson brothers’ draft stocks have been dropping for one simple reason: shooting.
Neither Ausar nor Amen Thompson is a great spot-up shooter, and that’s a huge problem in a make-or-miss league.
But either way, Amen is the more highly-touted prospect of the two brothers. That makes six players likely to be in the top five ahead of Ausar.
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The Action Network’s Vegas Refund has tracked 22 NBA mock drafts so far, and not a single one has Thompson being taken before the sixth pick.
The Ringer’s draft guide projects Thompson as the No. 8 pick, while The Athletic’s draft guide has him as the ninth-best big board prospect.
No reasonable source out there has Ausar Thompson as a top-five pick. His draft stock is falling, and a simple look at the top prospects tells us that it’s almost certain he will fall out of the top five.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see Thompson drop out of the top 10.
So, I’m pretty happy to bet the over 5.5 on Thompson’s draft position prop, even if we’re forced to drink the stupid high juice. I can’t envision a world where he flips the script and gets the Rockets or Pistons to buy in.