Few people sprint to the window to bet Under on a college football win total.
After all, the eight-month offseason produces hype for just about every team in the country.
The transfer portal offers programs a vehicle to retool their rosters every offseason, which means schools don’t have to settle for a true rebuilding year.
But even with a collegiate version of free agency, there are a few teams primed for ugly seasons this fall. I have three I’m fading from a win-total perspective.
University of Alabama Birmingham
After resurrecting its program in 2017, Alabama Birmingham has posted a 50-26 record straight up and a profitable 42-33-1 mark against the spread.
But most of that success came under head coach Bill Clark, who sadly was forced into early retirement due to spinal surgery last offseason. Interim coach Bryant Vincent filled in last fall and led the Blazers to a 7-6 mark and a bowl victory.
But despite pleas from their players, the program dumped Vincent in favor of Super Bowl-winning quarterback Trent Dilfer.
Dilfer has never coached in college, and he assembled a staff so light on experience that seven coaches will be leading positions for the very first time.
A run-first team in 2022, UAB lost the program’s second-leading rusher DeWayne McBride (3,523 yards) and will return just 14.3 percent of their line starts (FBS-worst).
In total, they return six starters and are tied for the worst in the nation in Net TARP score — an Action Network metric that evaluates incoming transfers and returning production.
Dilfer will need to hit the ground running, because UAB will draw three defending conference champions on the road (Georgia, Tulane, Texas-San Antonio) through the first seven weeks of the season.
Just two gimmes exist on the schedule (vs. North Carolina A&T, vs. South Florida) and a slew of toss-ups in American Athletic Conference play.
You can actually get plus-money (+124, FanDuel) by taking Under 4.5 wins in Dilfer’s debut, which is why this is my favorite win total across all of college football.
Kent State
Next up on the Under buffet is Kent State.
The Golden Flashes were pillaged like a medieval village this spring, losing their starting quarterback, running back and top three wide receivers.
They have just five starters coming back and a brand-new coaching staff.
Kenni Burns will be leading a team for the first time in his 16-year coaching career. Early tilts with Central Florida and Arkansas could get ugly, and one of their most winnable games this season comes on the road at Akron. Even beating Central Connecticut State isn’t assured for Kent. I’ll take Under 2.5 wins.
Old Dominion
Finally, we have Old Dominion, carrying a six-game losing streak into the season.
The Monarchs lost their top two offensive weapons in the offseason — one to the portal (Ali Jennings to Virginia Tech) and one to the NFL draft (Zack Kuntz to the Jets).
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That’s bad news for a program that finished 106th in total offense and 116th in points per game.
But surely their defense must have been better than that, right? Somehow ODU’s defense one-upped its offense by finishing 118th nationally.
They draw a pair of ACC opponents (Virginia Tech, Wake Forest) and travel to play Liberty in the non-conference portion of their schedule.
Beyond that, they face five FBS opponents that went bowling last year — and that doesn’t even include James Madison (8-3), which was ineligible to play in a bowl game, or perennial contender Appalachian State (6-6). This schedule is a bear, and ODU will be lucky to win three games. I’m hammering Under on their win total, which is sitting at 4.