Welcome back to another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!
We’ll focus on one pitcher and a few contact-oriented hitters to try to get the job done Wednesday.
Let’s dive in!
MacKenzie Gore less than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Gore has been up and down this season, but he is fresh off a masterful six-inning shutout performance against the Red Sox where he tallied seven strikeouts.
Gore’s strikeout performances have been a bit unpredictable this season.
While the Yankees are embarrassingly bad right now, they still are an above-average contact team against left-handed pitching.
There are four hitters in the projected lineup with strikeout rates of less than 22% percent against left-handed pitching.
It’s no secret that Gore wants to throw his heater, as he’s thrown roughly 60% of fastballs this season.
The Yankees are a solid fastball-hitting team, as five hitters in the projected lineup have K rates less than 20% (across the last two seasons) against that pitch from southpaws.
The Yankees might be bad right now, and they might not even win the game, but I’m backing Gore to have less than six strikeouts Wednesday.
Justin Turner more than 1.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs
Turner, a right-handed batter, is the definition of a professional hitter.
He strikes out less than 18% of the time against righties and lefties.
Odds are always high that he’s going to make contact.
Opposing pitcher Jose Urquidy is striking out just 15% of right-handed batters this month, while he has struck out only 20% of hitters over the last two seasons.
Across the last two years, Urquidy has historically yielded a higher barrel rate (10.4%) to right-handed batters as well.
According to Baseball Savant, Urquidy’s best pitch in terms of putaway percentage is his changeup, but he throws that less than 10% of the time to right-handed batters, so Turner won’t have to deal with it much.
Turner has a .358 wOBA vs. righties this season and he does not walk much.
He won’t barrel a ton of pitches, but he will surely make contact most of the time.
Turner has been scorching hot this month, slashing .318/.362/.545 with six runs, 14 hits and 10 RBIs.
Turner has eclipsed this number the last four times that he’s had five official ABs.
With the Red Sox on the road Wednesday, I like his chances of getting all of those chances.
Keibert Ruiz more than 1.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs
Ruiz is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, tallying more than 1.5 in eight of his last 10 games.
Ruiz is slashing .333/.413/.591 with 11 runs and 12 RBIs in August.Â
Ruiz, who will be batting from the left side Wednesday, hits right-handed pitchers a tad better than southpaws.
This season, he is striking out just 10.7% of the time against them.
He has a major advantage to put the ball in play against Luis Severino, who has struck out only 15% of left-handed batters in 2023.
Additionally, Severino is yielding a 59% hard-contact rate and a 12.1% barrel rate to left-handed batters.
The icing on the cake here is that Washington will be visiting the Bronx again, so the Nats are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat regardless of the score.