Insurance can provide a level of security. If something goes wrong, hey, at least you have some coverage!
Hopefully. If it is in your policy.
That’s the thing about insurance: It can be hard to know what is covered and what isn’t until you’ve already paid the premium.
The same could be said of finding fantasy running back insurance by drafting a handcuff. You know the drill: Grab an RB you like, then you get his backup later to make sure, in the event of injury or benching, you have the replacement at the ready
Unless that replacement ends up being somebody different. Or if the pair split work and ruin the value of both in the process. Or whatever other developments arise that aren’t covered by your fantasy insurance policy.
The Madman is not a big proponent of handcuffing — we prefer to draft a fleet of RBs who are in line to get a significant amount of workload regardless. But that often means investing draft capital that is more expensive than just buying the handcuff insurance policy.
So let’s take a look at which handcuffs offer the best insurance.
Buffalo Bills
Starter: James Cook. Handcuff: Damien Harris.
Analysis: If we’re going to handcuff, Cook is exactly the type of RB we want to do so with — someone without any performance equity, on a team that routinely doesn’t have a favorite RB. Problem: Harris could end up sharing work with fellow free-agent addition Latavius Murray. But considering you can get Harris at the tail end of drafts, you aren’t paying much of a premium.
Miami Dolphins
Starter: Raheem Mostert. Handcuff: Jeff Wilson Jr.
Analysis: You can get both late, so cost isn’t the problem. The problem is they likely will share the load, undermining each other’s value. So you have to draft two, then hope for an injury so that at least one becomes useful. We’re going to call this, the Committee Conundrum.
New England Patriots
Starter: Rhamondre Stevenson. Handcuff: Ezekiel Elliott.
Analysis: This one makes some sense. Stevenson is the clear starter, and if he goes down, Zeke is likely to get the first shot to replace him, and you can get him at the very end of fantasy drafts. This type we’ll refer to as a Buff Cuff.
New York Jets
Starter: Dalvin Cook. Handcuff: Breece Hall.
Analysis: This one is weird. Cook likely will be the guy early in the season, Hall could take over later. Cook likely will start the season in front, but Hall still is often going earlier in drafts. Both go in the first 6-7 rounds, so it is an expensive pair. And here’s the thing: Chances are, both spend much of the season in the Committee Conundrum.
Baltimore Ravens
Starter: J.K. Dobbins. Handcuff: Gus Edwards.
Analysis: Dobbins is the perfect handcuff candidate because of his injury history. But the Ravens are not an ideal offense to invest in the backfield, since QB Lamar Jackson eats up so much of the running game. Plus, we’ve seen Edwards get multiple opportunities in the past, and he is more bye-week filler than plug-and-play material.
Cincinnati Bengals
Starter: Joe Mixon. Handcuff: Unknown.
Analysis: Mixon is a great cuff candidate on a team for which you want exposure. But who is the cuff? Could be Trayveon Williams, Chase Brown, Chris Evans, or someone else. Wait for some clarity on the depth chart and add from the waiver wire later. We’ll call this the Uncertainty Principle.
Cleveland Browns
Starter: Nick Chubb. Handcuff: Unknown.
Analysis: Kareem Hunt was such an easy answer before. With him gone, this falls into Uncertainty Principle territory.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Starter: Najee Harris. Handcuff: Jaylen Warren.
Analysis: This one is pretty easy. Solidly in Buff Cuff territory.
Fantasy Football DVQ Explainer
Hop out of the pool, unpack your vacation suitcase, boot up your laptop and get ready, because fantasy football season is back.
The Fantasy Madman has returned with the latest iteration of his DVQ.
The Draft Value Quotient is a player rating system that assigns one universal number for every player. This value projects the point in the draft at which a player’s projected production will match the estimated draft pick value.
Since there is a wider separation among production at the top, so too is there a wider gap between DVQ values at the top of the rankings.
The player projections takes into account playing time, expected use/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance and injury history. The DVQ measures these projections against a player’s schedule and factors in positional depth and value above replacement.
These ratings are updated regularly.
Houston Texans
Starter: Dameon Pierce. Handcuff: Devin Singletary.
Analysis: It isn’t often you’re going to find the Madman touting a fantasy scenario favorable for Texans players, but here is one. And this category we’ll call Take the Later Player. Pierce we’re not convinced is a bellcow-worthy RB. Singletary we think got short-changed in Buffalo. So rather than invest two picks in RBs from the same bad offense, we’re just going to target the one who is cheaper. All of that said, this offense as a whole also suffers from Stay-Away Syndrome. But Singletary can be had after Round 10, so the risk is low.
Indianapolis Colts
Starter: Jonathan Taylor. Handcuff: Zack Moss.
Analysis: At this point, no one is certain where J.T. will play. If he does play for Indy, we don’t like ho-hum RBs backups on bad offenses — we’ll call this the Unicorn Theory. So though J.T. gets a pass on talent, Moss does not — even if it is him, rather than Kenyan Drake or Evan Hull or Deon Jackson, et al. So the Uncertainty Principle applies here too, even if you’re willing to gamble on the uncertainty involving Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Starter: Travis Etienne. Handcuff: Tank Bigsby.
Analysis: A Buff Cuff situation. We expect Etienne to get an ample work worthy of his draft status, and if he goes down, we imagine Bigsby will inherit, or at least get first shot at, a large chunk of that role (JaMycal Hasty will steal some).
Tennessee Titans
Starter: Derrick Henry. Handcuff: Tyjae Spears.
Analysis: Classify this as a Unicorn Theory situation. We have little reason to believe Spears could remotely mimic Henry’s production. Can also call it Gus Edwards Syndrome: Spears would become a desperation filler, not an every-week plug-and-play.
Denver Broncos
Starter: Javonte Williams. Handcuff: Samaje Perine.
Analysis: Of all the Buff Cuff behemoths, this is the buffest of cuffs. Williams is coming off an ankle injury, so his durability is in question. But when he has played, he has given bell-cow vibes. Perine filled in nicely for Joe Mixon in Cincy when given the opportunity, so we’re confident he can do so again. And best: Both can be had a reasonable cost — with Williams a mid-rounder and Perine often available around the 10th.
Kansas City Chiefs
Starter: Isiah Pacheco. Handcuff: Jerick McKinnon.
Analysis: In reality, Pacheco’s cuff should be Clyde Edwards-Helaire — because CEH will likely assume a chunk of Pacheco’s work should he go down. But here’s the thing: It doesn’t really impact McKinnon’s role — except it could grow slightly. Take the Later Player, McKinnon.
Oakland Raiders
Starter: Josh Jacobs. Handcuff: Unknown.
Analysis: This situation is all over the place. It is a little bit Unicorn Theory, with a heavy dose of Uncertainty Principle, and add a dash of Stay-Away Syndrome. Have we come up with a name for angry RBs who don’t want to play for their current teams? No? Then let’s say they have Anger and Attitude (AMA), and we’ll retroactively apply this to Jonathan Taylor. These individuals begs for a handcuff, too bad neither has a clear one.
Los Angeles Chargers
Starter: Austin Ekeler. Handcuff: Joshua Kelley.
Analysis: We list Kelley because that is what the depth chart says. But with Isaiah Spiller and a pair of rookies also in the mix, we object on the Uncertainty Principle.
Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Tony Pollard. Handcuff: Deuce Vaughn.
Analysis: We’re ready to Buff that Cuff, regardless of what the official depth charts say. Now understand, the Cowboys are moving to a West Coast offense, which means they might be less reliant on the traditional running game. But that doesn’t mean they can’t have productive fantasy RBs. And Pollard has yet to play a full season as the feature RB, so no track record for holding up under the more grueling workload. And Vaughn has been the hot name coming out of camp, so will aren’t too worried about the other strangers on the depth chart. And you can get Vaughn way late.
New York Giants
Starter: Saquon Barkley. Handcuff: Matt Breida.
Analysis: If you don’t like the fact that Unicorn Theory applies, then consider Breida’s injury history invokes the Uncertainty Principle. And did we mention Barkley’s value is elevated by his AMA status, at least in terms of his salary if not the team? So there’s that, another reason not to worry about a cuff.
Philadelphia Eagles
Starter: D’Andre Swift. Handcuff: Kenneth Gainwell.
Analysis: Can you max out the Uncertainty Principle? Because, who is going to get the lion’s share of the workload, if anyone? And, who will be No. 2? Or, will this be a multi-headed Scylla of Eagles past? Swift, Gainwell and Rashaad Penny are going in the late-middle rounds or later. However, instead of employing the Take the Laster Player philosophy here, we’re going to take the most talented, which happens to be Swift, around Rounds 8-10. At cost, it works if he lives up to hype. If not, then you likely didn’t want anything to do with any of them.
Washington Commanders
Starter: Brian Robinson. Handcuff: Antonio Gibson.
Analysis: We would say, why bother? But both can be had at such cheap cost. Just pick one. It doesn’t even have to be Take the Later Player, because the first one goes late enough. If arm-wrestling between the two, go Gibson.
Chicago Bears
Starter: Khalil Herbert. Handcuff: D’Onta Foreman.
Analysis: If not for QB Justin Fields, who is going to vulture a large share of touchdowns, this might be a Buff Cuff situation. Herbert is amazingly cheap for a potential bell-cow back, and Foreman is often undrafted. So why bother drafting a Herbert cuff? Just wait until you have an expendable roster spot during the regular season, and add Foreman then.
Detroit Lions
Starter: Jahmyr Gibbs. Handcuff: David Montgomery.
Analysis: This screams Committee Conundrum. Also, expect Montgomery to be a TD vulture, submarining Gibb’s value. But maybe we’re biased. The Madman has hated Lions backfields since … Holy cow, does it go all the way back to Barry Sanders?!
Green Bay Packers
Starter: Aaron Jones. Handcuff: AJ Dillon.
Analysis: This is a Buff Cuffs ‘R’ Us situation. If you take Jones in the third or fourth round, Dillon in Round 8 or 9 works well. A Week 6 bye works, too, with just Green Bay and the Steelers off (Weeks 7 and 13 are the worst, with six teams each).
Minnesota Vikings
Starter: Alexander Mattison. Handcuff: Unknown.
Analysis: Mattison, in his first season in the assumed feature role, is a great cuff candidate. If only there were a good name to attach to him. Uncertainty Principle going bonkers here.
Atlanta Falcons
Starter: Bijan Robinson. Handcuff: Tyler Allgeier.
Analysis: The Unicorn Theory applies, since Robinson is expected to carry the offense, and no one who subs for him would. And this also overlaps with the Uncertainty Principle, since Cordarrelle Patterson is still in the backup mix.
Carolina Panthers
Starter: Miles Sanders. Handcuff: Chuba Hubbard.
Analysis: We’ve seen Hubbard in backup action, and he was not impressive. But this also is a new coaching staff, but then, we saw D’Onta Foreman outproduce Hubbard last season. So we’re going to assume Sanders is on a different level than his backup, which elevates him to Unicorn Theory status. Sanders is cheap enough around Round 6, but not worth insuring.
New Orleans Saints
Starter: Alvin Kamara. Handcuff: Jamaal Williams.
Analysis: Kamara hasn’t averaged better than 4.0 yards per carry for two straight seasons, and he is suspended the first three games. Remember how Williams often outscored D’Andre Swift in Detroit, because he got all the goal-line carries? Yeah, we do, too. Watch, as Williams turns Kamara into the new Swift. Employ the Take the Later Player plan.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Starter: Rachaad White. Handcuff: Chase Edmonds.
Analysis: Too close to an Uncertainty Principle situation between Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Add in the fact that the Bucs offense in general could struggle, and it is risky enough drafting White — we’ll take that risk in the sixth round, just not for his undetermined backup later in the draft.
Arizona Cardinals
Starter: James Conner. Handcuff: Who cares?
Analysis: Conner has done great in Arizona — when healthy, and even more so when QB Kyler Murray is out. After suffering an ACL injury in Week 4 last season, don’t expect to see Murray anytime soon. Yet, Arizona is also projected to be one of, if not the single worst team in the NFL this season. There is nothing behind Conner who should warrant any interest. He gets Unicorn treatment by default.
San Francisco 49ers
Starter: Christian McCaffrey. Handcuff: Elijah Mitchell.
Analysis: This might not be Broncos Buff Cuff cuffy, but it is pretty darn cuffy. CMC is proven to be one of the top fantasy RBs, and he also has proven to be somewhat injury-prone. And Mitchell, when given opportunity, has done well (though, he also has some injury history). Considering you can get Mitchell in Round 10 or beyond, the expense is worth the protection.
Seattle Seahawks
Starter: Kenneth Walker. Handcuff: Zach Charbonnet.
Analysis: Sure, Chris Carson had a few good seasons, but has anyone actually consistently delivered the fantasy performance expected in Seattle since Marshawn Lynch? Walker is in line to get the chance. And do we believe the rookie Charbonnet is the clear replacement if Walker goes down? Uncertainty Principle all over this.
Los Angeles Rams
Starter: Cam Akers. Handcuff: Kyren Williams.
Analysis: I mean, we all saw last season, right? So why trust any of these guys? Akers is a decent bargain, assuming he gets feature carries, because you can’t often get that kind of volume as late as the fifth round. But, we barely trust Akers, and then, trying to guess his backup — where Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers and Royce Freeman could also be in the mix? None of the Akers backups register on draft boards. We wouldn’t even fill our last roster spot with them. We would wait until Akers gets hurt, then figure out which we want to bid on in free agency.
