Ryan Dunleavy breaks down the AFC North as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2023 NFL season.
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Zac Taylor
2022 record: 12-4
O/U wins: 10.5
Key additions: LT Orlando Brown Jr., LB Germaine Pratt, S Nick Scott, QB Trevor Siemian, DE Myles Murphy
Key departures: S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, TE Hayden Hurst
First-and-goal: Super Bowl-or-bust. Once again, high expectations rest on Joe Burrow’s connection with WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in perhaps the final year together for that trio of receivers. After making slight upgrades to a woeful offensive line last offseason, the Bengals made a big splash by signing Brown away from the rival Chiefs. The defensive front seven, led by Trey Hendrickson’s 22 sacks in his last 31 games and tackle machine Logan Wilson, doesn’t get enough credit. The Bengals ranked in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency last season.
Fourth-and-long: Burrow missed 15 of 17 training camp practices with a calf strain that could linger. A team that should be protecting late leads needs to average better than 3.9 yards per carry (ranked No. 29 in the league last season). Joe Mixon took a pay cut to remain the starter, but he will be pushed by younger backups. RT Jonah Williams — the one offensive line holdover from the 2021 Super Bowl appearance — requested a trade after he was forced to switch positions. The secondary already features two new starting safeties and is reliant on cornerback Chidobe Awuzie returning to pre-ACL form.
Dunleavy’s decision: 12-5. In the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs — which should be the Bengals’ regular-season goal — they are at a disadvantage playing in a division with no clear doormat.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Coach: John Harbaugh
2022 record: 10-7
O/U wins: 10.5
Key additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Nelson Agholor, WR Zay Flowers, CB Rock Ya-Sin, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney
Key departures: G Ben Powers, TE Josh Oliver, S Chuck Clark, CB Marcus Peters, DT Calais Campbell, EDGE Justin Houston
First-and-goal: A two-year dark cloud hanging over the franchise was lifted when QB Lamar Jackson signed a $260 million extension. Not only did the Ravens give Jackson a boatload of money, they also gave him the best collection of receivers in his six-year career. The idea is that new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s playbook will create big plays down the field rather than rely on Jackson’s legs for chunk gains that simultaneously leave him susceptible to late-season injury. Re-signing Roquan Smith — after an in-season trade — continued the Ravens’ rich linebacker tradition.
Fourth-and-long: Is Beckham’s game still as strong as his name after he missed all last season with the second ACL tear of his career? If Jackson is going to run less frequently, that means more carries for the running backs — after starter J.K. Dobbins held-in for a new contract during camp. Like Beckham, Dobbins has an injury history. The Ravens’ pass rush is reliant on the development of two recent draft projects — David Ojabo and Odafe Oweh. Choosing not to replace Powers with a veteran or a high draft pick was a risk.
Dunleavy’s decision: 10-7. The Ravens have looked like midseason Super Bowl contenders each of the last two seasons — 8-3 in 2021 and 9-4 in 2022 — only to crumble down the stretch as Jackson missed time. A smoother ride to the playoffs waits ahead.
3. Cleveland Browns
Coach: Kevin Stefanski
2022 record: 7-10
O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: OLB Za’Darius Smith, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornhill, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, WR Elijah Moore, S Rodney McLeod, DT Shelby Harris
Key departures: QB Jacoby Brissett, DT Taven Bryan, S John Johnson, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, RB Kareem Hunt
First-and-goal: For the first time since 2020 — before his trade demand out of Houston and before he faced sexual misconduct allegations that led to an 11-game suspension — QB Deshaun Watson is a Week 1 starter. The Browns will play four of their first five games at home and have an early bye week mixed in, so a fast start is there for the taking. That five-game stretch features all three division opponents, too. Word around the NFL is that hiring blitz-crazed veteran defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was the perfect move to spark an underachieving unit.
Fourth-and-long: Watson leading the Texans to back-to-back playoff berths in 2018-19 was a long time ago. He looked pedestrian in six games last season after his long layoff, which raises a question: Does he just need more time to reacclimate himself to the NFL or has he lost his fastball? Denzel Ward is elite, but will fellow CBs Martin Emerson Jr. and Greg Newsome II hold up under Schwartz’s man-to-man coverage? Special teams has long been an issue for the Browns, leading to the hiring of former player Bubba Ventrone as coordinator.
Dunleavy’s decision: 8-9. If all breaks right, the Browns have the players to challenge the AFC’s elite. If all goes wrong, Stefanski could be out and the Browns could be picking near the top of the draft. Split the difference.
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4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin
2022 record: 9-8
O/U wins: 8.5
Key additions: WR Allen Robinson, G Isaac Seumalo, LB Cole Holcomb, CB Patrick Peterson, OLB Markus Golden, S Keanu Neal, LB Elandon Roberts, OT Broderick Jones
Key departures: CB William Jackson, LB Myles Jack, CB Cameron Sutton, LB Devin Bush, S Terrell Edmunds, LB Robert Spillane
First-and-goal: There is star power on defense with DE Cameron Heyward, OLB T.J. Watt and S Minkah Fitzpatrick. QB Kenny Pickett showed marked improvement over his last eight games as a rookie (84 QB rating), when he threw five touchdowns and only one interception and carried it over to a terrific preseason. The Steelers are trying to recreate the explosive offense that Ben Roethlisberger had in his prime with recent draft picks George Pickens, Calvin Austin and Pat Freiermuth. Seumalo is the kind of nasty run-blocker that between-the-tackles RB Najee Harris has been missing.
Fourth-and-long: Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is on the hot seat after the Steelers managed a league-worst 12 touchdown passes last season. Pickett needs to be more than a game manager to take the pressure off. Harris hasn’t averaged four yards per carry in either of his first two seasons, and that must change to achieve offensive balance. The draft-and-develop Steelers spent more than usual on outsiders in the offseason, but took a lot of gambles on older players coming off down years, such as Robinson, Peterson and Golden. In this division, cornerback is the wrong spot to be weak.
Dunleavy’s decision: 7-10. Tomlin’s incredible 16-year run to start his career without a losing record finally comes to an end, and the Steelers finish in last place for the first time since 1988.
