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Betting

Premier League predictions: Arsenal vs. Tottenham Hotspur odds, pick

By
Michael Leboff, Action Network
Published Sep. 23, 2023, 12:30 p.m. ET
Ange Postecoglou
Ange Postecoglou Getty Images

Sunday’s North London Derby has the potential to be box office.

Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur come into the fixture with identical 4-1-0 (W-D-L) records and sit just two points behind first-place Manchester City, making this the first North London Derby in quite some time where both teams are in good spirits. 

The Gunners are currently a -140 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Spurs sitting at +330 at the time of writing. 

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal pick

Are these odds too wide for this weekend’s Premier League headliner?

Spurs and Arsenal are two of the best teams in the Premier League but they achieve their success through very different means. 

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners want to be on the ball and slowly buildup from the back, creating intricate passing combinations to lull the defense into a mistake.

Arteta worked under Pep Guardiola for years at Manchester City, so it’s no surprise that Arsenal play a similar style to the Cityzens.

It’s may not be the most exciting brand of soccer, but it’s been quite effective for the Gunners over the past two years. 

Manager of Tottenham Hotspur, Ange Postecoglou during the Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur and Sheffield United at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on September 16, 2023 in London, England.
Manager of Tottenham Hotspur, Ange Postecoglou during the Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur and Sheffield United at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on September 16, 2023 in London, England. Visionhaus/Getty Images

The one issue that Arsenal have had this season is that they aren’t generating enough quality scoring chances from all of their possession.

The Gunners rank ninth in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and seventh in big scoring chances created despite playing a relatively easy schedule to this point.

It’s never a bad thing to be on the ball for the majority of a game, but Arsenal will need to find a way to generate more opportunities or they’re going to struggle against better competition.

Tottenham also want to be on the ball, but they want to move quickly through the lines and turn defenses around with their pace.

Shifting from a more defensive-minded, pragmatic style to Ange Postecoglou’s pass-and-move ethos was expected to come with some growing pains, but Spurs have been a swashbuckling side through their first five matches.

There have certainly been some nervy moments — Tottenham needed two goals in stoppage time to beat Sheffield United 2-1 last weekend — but generally speaking it’s been a bright start to 2023-24 for Spurs.

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This is a styles-make-fights kind of matchup.

Postecoglou’s Spurs play with a lot more risk and are shakier defensively than the Gunners, but their attacking numbers will provide a stern test for an Arsenal side that struggles when things go a bit off-script.

I think Spurs are a live underdog in Sunday’s North London Derby.

The bet: Tottenham Hotspur +320 (DraftKings)