SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Frank Schwindel, who lockered next to Yoshinobu Yamamoto for months this season with the Orix Buffaloes, describes Yamamoto as a charismatic guy “who always has a smile on his face, until it is game day and he gets serious and locked in. When he was on the mound, we thought we were winning that day.”
Ryan McBroom, who has played for the Hiroshima Carp the past two seasons, said of facing Yamamoto, “He’s electric. Every one of his pitches is a plus pitch.”
David MacKinnon, who faced Yamamoto in five games this season, said, “I can’t think of anyone who has six legit pitches. He just developed a sinker this year, doesn’t throw it much and it is kind of nasty.”
Yamamoto is arguably the most intriguing player in the now-open free-agent market. Shohei Ohtani will earn the largest contract. But it is possible that the second largest this offseason goes to Yamamoto. Because he just turned 25 in August. Because he has won the pitching Triple Crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts) in each of the last three seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) and also the equivalent of the Japanese Cy Young in each of those seasons.
The success of a run of top Japanese pitchers who have come to MLB — Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Ohtani and Kodai Senga — has created greater fervor for the next in line. He is expected to have a multitude of serious suitors, including both New York teams, that could push the righty’s payday toward or over $200 million.
Are you waiting for the downside?
It is that size matters and Yamamoto is listed at 5-foot-10 and one scout, who projected him as a No. 3 starter, said, “There should be questions if Yamamoto is legitimately 5-10.”
One MLB executive said, “Tell me the 5-10 pitchers who a major league team has ever given big money — there is a reason for it.”
There have been nine pitchers who have received a guarantee of at least $175 million and the shortest among them was 6-2 Zack Greinke. One scout likened Yamamoto’s broad repertoire and feel to pitch to Greinke. Also, let’s not act like the big guys all endure. The 6-5 Stephen Strasburg signed a $245 million contract and hardly will have pitched during any of its seven-year term. The 6-4 Jacob deGrom made six starts on a five-year, $185 million pact before needing a second Tommy John procedure.
And for every slight Tim Lincecum who burned brightly and then burned out, there’s a 5-11 Pedro Martinez, who would probably get $300 million and a 5-11 Roy Oswalt who would get $200 million and a David Cone, who was listed at 6-1, but I’m going to say no way to that height, and would have been a $250 million-ish pitcher.
“We all like it when they’re body beautiful and everything’s clean; and those guys break down too,” said a scout who saw Yamamoto firsthand and assesses him as a top-of-the-rotation force. “Who are we kidding? We don’t know. He has a clean delivery. He’s a good athlete. It’s a warrior mentality. You’d love them all to be 6-3, 6-4 with thick legs like Nolan [Ryan]. The size doesn’t bother me.”
Schwindel, a major leaguer for three seasons who was with Yamamoto until August when he injured his back and needed surgery, said, “I’m not concerned at all about the size. He’s the first one in the weight room every day, not just lifting the most weights, but his flexibility might be the best I’ve ever seen. I’ve seen him throw from center field to the foul pole flatfooted as part of his long-toss program. He really can let it rip. That size isn’t going to hurt him. … It’s crazy. He can do back bridges and stuff you only see gymnasts do. He’s just a special guy.”
In that way, he is reminiscent of 5-11 David Robertson, whose gymnast-like flexibility has enabled him to pitch and endure beyond his size — albeit as a reliever. And the scout who was lowest on Yamamoto because he is “very concerned” with the size, said there is potential that Yamamoto ends up a reliever, citing concerns whether the fastball up in the zone will play the same in MLB as NPB.
But that was not a majority opinion among three ex-MLBers who played in Japan, four scouts who have seen Yamamoto and two executives. Of that group, just two expressed significant concerns due to his size and even they believed Yamamoto would have MLB success.
There are two smallish righties — 5-10 Sonny Gray and 5-7 Marcus Stroman — who have been All-Stars and exhibited durability. A scout who was highest on Yamamoto said he is better than that duo, noting his size, curveball and power down the mound are similar to Gray’s, but he possesses a “fastball and splitter that are far superior.”
“Yes, he has a smaller frame but he’s really athletic,” the scout said. “He has good energy down the mound. He has plus stuff across the board — a riding fastball, above-average curveball and a swing-and-miss type split. As far as Senga, he has better command than Senga, and is a better strike-thrower. He is only 5-10, but pitches like he’s 6-5. No fear. Aggressive. Loves to have the ball in his hand. Good look in his eyes. Typical Japanese delivery with a pause, sometimes two pauses. But good direction and energy down the mound. He can get swings and misses with the three main pitches.”
MacKinnon, who played for the A’s and Angels in 2022, had 17 plate appearances against Yamamoto this year and homered off of him early in the season. He said, “I don’t see [size] impacting performance. It helps certain guys that he works really far down the mound, so he’s releasing the ball from a lower slot where the ball, it doesn’t have that ride technically on Trackman, but it looks like he has more ride than he does because he gets so much extension through it. That’s what it looks like. He also has a weird windup where he kind of slide-steps. I don’t think [size] will be a problem.”
Adaptability and work ethic also are seen as Yamamoto assets. He “overhauled his delivery in his free-agent year, which is not something you would see in the United States,” said the scout with the most doubt about Yamamoto. He made it more linear (more north/south) down the hill. He gets down the slope with power. He’s a dynamic mover with a very quick arm. And the way he moves with the arm stroke creates deception.”
In his walk year, Yamamoto was 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 164 innings over 23 starts. That included a Sept. 9 no-hitter with a bevy of MLB executives in attendance, including Brian Cashman. Yamamoto’s first two postseason starts did not go well — a combined 12 runs in 12 ²/₃ innings. But with his defending champ club facing elimination in Game 6 of the Japan Series, Yamamoto set a record for the country’s equivalent of the World Series with 14 strikeouts during a 138-pitch complete game in a 5-1 victory. But the Hanshin Tigers won the title the next day and in the aftermath, Yamamoto’s Orix club made official what was expected — that he will be posted this offseason.
“He got touched up in his previous start and that shocks a whole country and then he comes back and strikes out 14 in a complete game,” Schwindel siad. “He will make adjustments. He will put the work in. He is the real deal.”
Once MLB makes the posting official, clubs have 45 days to sign Yamamoto. There will be a frenzy. There is always some concern with Japanese pitchers coming over that, among other items, they are going from a contact-oriented league to a power league, that the ball is tackier — for example, Yamamoto’s Kershaw-esque curve might lose spin with a less tacky ball — and in Japan most travel maxes out at 1 ¹/₂ hours without constant time-zone changes.
Still, he stands out. Yokohama Bay Stars lefty Shota Imanaga also is expected to come this offseason as is Nippon Ham Fighters righty Naoyuki Uwasawa and lefty reliever Yuki Matsui, who played with Tanaka on the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Cuban righty reliever Yariel Rodriguez, who had played for the Chunichi Dragons, already is doing showcases for MLB teams, some of whom might project him to start. But when it comes to imports from Japan this offseason — especially with 22-year-old Chiba Lotte Marines sensation Roki Sasaki not expected to try to come before next winter — there is just one star among stars.
“It’s actually not Japanese style how he pitches,” said McBroom, who played parts of three MLB seasons. “It’s actually more American style. Everything is hard. Firm fastball. Even the breaking ball off of that is hard. Everything’s just real firm and really sharp. He’ll do really well in the States. He comes right at you. I’m telling you he’s electric.”
