NYers face skyrocketing costs to switch to electric heat under new ‘green’ policies: study

New York residents could face skyrocketing heating bills under the state’s new “green” policies — which may not even have a significant impact on greenhouse-gas emissions, a new study warns.

A review by the Empire Center for Public Policy says the state’s new rules will push homeowners to buy expensive electrified heat pumps while being forced to phase out their natural gas, oil and propane systems.

But even then, the new electrification policy could only have a negligible impact on greenhouse emissions while burning up homeowners’ wallets, according to the analysis, “In Cold Reality: The Cost and Challenge of Compulsory Home Electrification in New York.”

“New York’s plan to steer homeowners and landlords toward electric heat could backfire due to high costs and practical concerns,” the authors say.

“The costs of heat pump installation and building shell weatherization are high and will place a substantial economic burden on many homeowners, even with state and federal subsidies.

“The cost of installing a heat pump and weatherizing a home: $14,600 to $46,200,” says the study, prepared by Empire Center fellow James Hanley.

Even with the extensive state and federal subsidies, the upfront price tag of heat pumps and weatherization will likely push many homeowners to instead buy low-cost but energy-hungry electric furnaces, the report says.

The electric furnaces put considerably greater stress on the state’s grid, defeating the purpose of using cleaner, non-fossil burning energy, the report claims.

The green push from the state comes along with Gov. Kathy Hochul’s plan to ban gas stoves in newly constructed homes by 2025. New York’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act calls for reducing statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 85 percent by 2050.

The state’s Climate Action Council proposed meeting that goal in large part by electrifying 85 percent of the state’s buildings. But it also has recommended a prohibition on the replacement of fuel-burning furnaces as of 2030, which would push the mandate closer to 100 percent, the report said.

Only 13 percent of all New York residential units are currently heated with either electricity or solar energy.

In Staten Island, only 5% of homes have electric heat — the lowest of any county in the state.

Heating oil is used in one in five or 1.4 million New York homes — including in the coldest parts of the state such as the Adirondacks, as well as Long Island.

Hanley of the Empire Center said the impact of this electrification would be felt most acutely in upstate rural New York, where the median household income of owner-occupied homes is the lowest in the state.

“The low rate of electric heating in many of the state’s more rural and lower-income counties means much of the choice will fall on homeowners who can least afford it,” the report said “And those who have unexpected equipment failures in midwinter may not be able to arrange contractors for their necessary shell upgrades in time to ensure comfort for the remainder of the season.”

The report said the state could instead curb emissions by setting clean fuel standards that encourage the use of biofuels.

Whether homeowners choose heat pumps or electric furnaces, mandatory electrification will lead to the elimination of propane and oil furnaces by the late 2040s and early 2050s, and no later than the early 2060s. The home heating oil delivery industry will likely go out of business.

“By choosing a single model for all homeowners to follow, the state’s Climate Action Council closed the door on the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the use of clean fuel standards using fuels supplied by an existing distribution system,” Hanley said. “In doing so, it acted without regard for consumer preference, homeowner cost, or whether there were more cost-effective means of achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

“This is the fundamental problem at the heart of New York’s command-and-control attempt to restructure its economy to make what amounts to barely detectable reductions in global emissions. Albany can ban things, but it can’t control how people replace them.” 

Hochul’s office rebutted the findings.

“Under the status quo, New York consumers are stuck with dramatic fluctuations on utility bills and sky-high costs after extreme weather events,” a rep for the governor said. “Governor Hochul is making sure the clean energy revolution is affordable for New Yorkers, which is why she’s invested nearly $1.6 billion on energy affordability initiatives.”

The current state budget includes $200 million to shave high electric bills for 800,000 households whose family income is under $75,000, Hochul’s office said.

The budget also created a separate $200 million fund that helps 20,000 low-income families upgrade their homes by adding insulation or buying new energy-efficient appliances.

The governor insists that participating families will pay no more than 6% of their incomes on electricity.