China stepped up election meddling in midterms, didn’t fear Biden: report
WASHINGTON – Beijing increased the intensity of its election interference operations last year – most likely due to President Biden’s perceived weakness and a belief the activity would draw less attention in a non-presidential year, according to a newly declassified intelligence report.
The 21-page document compiled by the National Intelligence Council and declassified last week by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, concluded that Chinese Communist Party leadership “tacitly approved” the influence campaign, raising fears that the US’ chief rival is readying an even more aggressive interference push in 2024.
According to the report, senior Beijing officials “have issued broad directives to intensify efforts” to influence not only American public opinion, but also foreign policy in China’s favor since the last presidential election.
“[Chinese] leaders most likely see their efforts to magnify US societal divisions as a response to what they believe is an intensified US effort to promote democracy at China’s expense,” the authors wrote.
Underpinning the activity are concerns in Beijing about rising anti-China sentiment in the US and the belief that it must be countered, the report assessed.
Relations with China have frayed dramatically under the Biden administration, which has maneuvered to cut Beijing off from strategic technologies such as advanced semiconductors and shot down a Chinese spy balloon that drifted through US airspace for more than a week earlier this year.
‘Tacit approval‘
Ahead of last year’s midterms, the Chinese government gave “influence actors more freedom to operate” than in prior election cycles, “probably” because it “did not expect the current administration to retaliate as severely as they feared in 2020,” according to the report.
That direction was also partly due to the perceived lesser importance of midterm elections, during which Chinese officials “believed that Beijing was under less scrutiny.”
“Beijing almost certainly viewed the US midterm elections as an opportunity to portray the US democratic model as chaotic, ineffective and unrepresentative, and frequently directed [Chinese] messaging to highlight US divisions on social issues, such as abortion and gun control,” the report said.
While fewer Americans vote in midterm elections, China has a keen interest in influencing congressional races “because Beijing is convinced that Congress is a locus of anti-China activity, driving a downturn in the bilateral relationship and more aggressively threatening China’s core interests,” according to the intelligence report.
“PRC leaders repeatedly have instructed officials to focus on Congress,” the report said, using the People’s Republic of China’s official acronym. “… In 2021, Beijing identified specific members of Congress to punish for their anti-China views and to reward for their perceived support of Beijing.”
The report, which retained significant redactions, did not publicly identify which elected officials were targeted.
Chinese leaders stopped short of authorizing a “comprehensive campaign” to influence the midterms in favor of one political party over another, the report found, adding that choice had more to do with plausible deniability than any actual preference by Beijing.
“China’s officials almost certainly viewed the risks of such efforts as greater than the rewards because they were wary of exposure of their influence efforts in the United States,” the report said.
Further, it likely did not want to “become embroiled in US politics” and came to the overall conclusion that “Congress would remain adversarial to Beijing regardless of which party was in control.”
Although officials did not find a top-down directive to meddle in the elections akin to Russia’s efforts in 2016, they believe “a handful of midterm races” were targeted.
How they did it
While the intelligence community assessed that China had not formally signed off on a full-scale campaign, officials likely took liberties to counter anti-Beijing narratives in the US.
“PRC intelligence officers, diplomats and other influence actors probably viewed some election interference activities as consistent with Beijing’s standing guidance to counter US politicians viewed as anti-China and to support others viewed as pro-China,” the report said.
“A large volume of [influence activity] actively involved content that highlighted US political divisions and disparaged US democracy, themes that are consistent with China’s internal guidance.”
In its efforts, China leaned heavily on online influencers – including some on TikTok, currently under scrutiny in the US for its ties to Beijing, according to the report.
“Information from August indicated that China’s English-language messaging efforts on TikTok had increased focus on US politicians and US domestic issues, such as abortion, mass shooting and immigration,” the report said. “In contrast, PRC state media coverage of the 2020 presidential election was limited … in total volume of content.”
The strategy follows that of other foreign adversaries, such as Russia, that turned away from publishing false articles and self-created propaganda in favor of “amplifying existing public narratives,” sowing distrust in the US democratic system and “stok[ing] sociopolitical divisions,” according to the report.
“This approach provides deniability as foreign actors propagate US content to try to exploit existing fissures,” the report said.
Looking ahead
Skepticism about the Chinese Communist Party has become a bipartisan issue ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Both Biden and former President Donald Trump, the GOP frontrunner, have touted their efforts to push back on Beijing.
Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in a statement that Americans can expect further meddling by China as voting day approaches.
“Beijing is shifting its focus from influencing foreign audiences to blatantly interfering in their elections – and its sights are set on the 2024 US presidential race,” he said in a statement. “China’s aims are three-fold: to sow social division, discourage Americans from voting, and portray democracy as dysfunctional.”
As the presidential election approaches, the Chinese government has shown no indication of slowing down its attempts to influence races over the next year, Singleton said.
“China’s growing election interference is consistent with its bid to alter global norms regarding Chinese autocracy and Western democracy, namely by comparing, contrasting, and consistently misrepresenting the two competing visions in ways advantageous to China,” he said.
What’s more, China’s influence efforts will likely affect more than just the US, particularly with Taiwan set to hold its presidential elections in January.
Uniting Taiwan with the mainland is Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s top goal for his country, and Biden warned him against meddling in Taipei’s elections at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco last month.
