The Texans are playing with house money when they take to their home turf against the Browns in Saturday’s wild-card clash.
They won by the skin of their teeth in Week 18 to clinch the AFC South and earn admission into the NFL Playoffs.
It’s likely the previous two sentences would read “Colts” if Indianapolis had converted on fourth-and-one with 1:06 left in the game.
The only difference this outcome made for Cleveland was flight logistics and which shade of blue they would be lining up against on Saturday: Navy or Royal. I believe their advantage remains the same.
C.J. Stroud may not have been available in Week 16’s 36-22 defeat to Cleveland, but that had nothing to do with Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper connecting for a franchise receiving record of 265 yards and two scores.
This is a road Flacco knows all too well; the 38-year-old signal caller is 5-0 against the spread all time in wild-card games.
He has been Cleveland’s messiah since arriving in Week 13, leading the Browns with four consecutive games with 300-plus air yards and five with at least two touchdown passes.
Flacco had some trouble with Houston’s zone coverage last time around, but I expect that to have been rectified.
Besides, Cleveland got to rest its starters for this matchup while Houston was duking it out to the final minute seven days prior.
The Browns have consistently sustained the best defense in football, completing the campaign with a league-best 270.2 yards per week.
They also allowed 8.0 first downs per game, which was No. 1 overall along with the best rate in third and fourth down conversion.
Stroud’s presence will have its impact; the rookie threw for the second-most yards per game and ended the season at No. 6 overall in passer rating.
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He’s the favorite to take home NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and he and DeMeco Ryans are the first rookie/first-year coach tandem to head to the playoffs since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano in 2012.
That duo lost in the wild-card round. History should repeat itself when this exciting young group tests its potential against a robust, experienced Cleveland front.
The play: Browns -2