Prop betting isn’t what it used to be.
For so many years, it was unusual. It was special. It was reserved for the most important game in American sports.
Now, it can be found on a Tuesday night tilt between the Pistons and Wizards. It is a ticket to section 347 of MetLife Stadium to watch a band that was once 20 feet away at Irving Plaza.
Still, the music will sound good. There is fun to be had. There are memories to be made.
Once again, I will do my best to help.
Below is a sampling of some of my favorite prop bets available for the Super Bowl (prices vary by sportsbook):
Kickoff
National anthem over 90.5 seconds (+102)
Only one Super Bowl performer since 1999 has performed the anthem in under 91 seconds (Billy Joel, 90 seconds). Let’s not put too much stock in Reba McEntire’s 1997 World Series performance (83 seconds). The 68-year-old singer will never perform on a stage like this again.
Coin toss (+100, DraftKings)
Tails has won seven of the past 10 Super Bowl tosses. Momentum is on its side.
Opening kickoff not a touchback (+250, BetMGM)
The odds are against us, but it is a live dog, considering the 49ers rank 25th in the league in touchback percentage (62.3).
First Touchdown scorer
Jersey number of first touchdown scorer over 22.5 (-110, FanDuel)
This side gives us the NFL’s leader in touchdowns (Christian McCaffrey), the Chiefs’ most frequent first touchdown scorer/top postseason performer (Travis Kelce) and the 49ers’ co-leader, with McCaffrey, in red-zone targets (George Kittle).
Deebo Samuel (+950, FanDuel)
If it falls under 22.5, the most explosive offensive weapon in the game is the biggest threat. If Kyle Shanahan empties his playbook, Samuel — who had seven receiving touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns this season — will be rewarded.
Rashee Rice (10/1, Caesars)
If San Francisco has too many eyes on Kelce, expect Patrick Mahomes to look for the team’s new top wideout. The Chiefs’ first touchdown this season has come via pass in 15 of 19 games and Rice has received at least nine targets in seven of the past nine games.
Noah Gray (+5500, DraftKings)
Again, if Kelce attracts excessive attention, Mahomes will look elsewhere. Perhaps, in the direction of Gray, who has seen significant playing time in Kansas City’s two tight end sets, and has received eight targets in the past two games, with two attempts inside the 10-yard line this postseason.
Passing
Mahomes under 262.5 passing yards (-115, Caesars)
The two-time Super Bowl MVP hasn’t topped this number in five straight games. His status as the best in the sport inflates this line, ignoring how important the ground game has been in the Chiefs’ resurgence. In last year’s win over the Eagles, Mahomes threw for 182 yards.
Mahomes under 0.5 interception (-115, Caesars)
He may not be as explosive without Tyreek Hill, but he will be efficient. Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in a record six straight postseason games.
Brock Purdy under 248.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM)
The 49ers’ quarterback hasn’t cleared his passing yards prop in five straight games. The Chiefs defense kept two of the league’s top passers under 200 yards in the postseason (Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa) and Shanahan isn’t likely to put San Francisco’s title hopes on his shoulders.
Christian McCaffrey to throw a pass (+1100)
The star running back has attempted four passes in his career, including one for a 34-yard touchdown last season. If the Chiefs load the box, Shanahan could pull out a Philly Special-like surprise.
Rushing/Receiving/Misc.
Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts (-110)
He has attempted six runs in each of the past two games. Don’t forget about kneel downs.
Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
Kansas City’s strong pass rush will keep Purdy scrambling. Sometimes, it will backfire. Purdy ran for 48 yards in the NFC Championship and 14 yards in the NFC divisional win over the Packers. Quarterbacks ran for an average of 20.1 yards against the Chiefs this season.
Kelce over 72.5 yards receiving (-110)
Don’t overthink this one. Following an underwhelming regular season, Mahomes’ favorite target has averaged 87.3 yards receiving in the postseason.
Jake Moody missed field goal (+250)
The rookie kicker has missed a field goal in three straight games. Fortunately, there won’t be any pressure here.
Potpourri
Lil John will appear with Usher at the halftime show (-200)
I don’t like the juice, but this is as close to a lock as you can get at this price, given Lil John’s vital role on Usher’s most popular song “Yeah!” (over 1.1 billion plays on Spotify). We’ll also throw a dart on an appearance by will.i.am (+1200), who performed “OMG” with Usher at Super Bowl XLV.
Winning scorer of the Puppy Bowl
Bark Purdy (+3300) is the play. I haven’t seen enough on film to justify the price for Patrick Mahomes (+600).
Total time Taylor Swift will be shown live (Over 28.5 seconds)
It’s not the lock it may look like. Swift only got 24 seconds of screen time at Buffalo, but that was sandwiched by 66 seconds the week prior and 32 seconds during the AFC Championship. A massive audience of casual football fans will get what they want.
Will Kelce and Swift be shown kissing on the field?
Yes (-200) has significantly worse value than the Chiefs money line (+110). If you like the 49ers to win, bet on there being no kiss on the field (+150) for the best de facto San Francisco money line play available.
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Super Bowl MVP
Running back (+900)
Betting by position provides an incredible opportunity to get the most valuable non-quarterback (McCaffrey) at more than double (+425) his solo price. There will be a game this century where a running back takes home the honor. There may be no more likely spot, given the 49ers’ status as favorites, McCaffrey’s all-around production and questions about Purdy.
Travis Kelce (+1200)
If you like Kansas City, there is no point betting on Mahomes (+125). Kelce has 17 touchdowns in his past 15 playoff games, including two against Buffalo in the AFC divisional round. Plus, you’ve probably heard that the fix is in, thanks to Swift. It’s amazing how the NFL convinced Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, the Bills’ kicker and their teammates to go along with the plan and destroy their lifelong dreams.
Deebo Samuel (+2000)
The ultimate wild card has the potential for multiple explosive plays.
Same game parlay
Chiefs money line/Total score under 47.5/McCaffrey 90-plus yards rushing/Isiah Pacheco 80-plus yards rushing (+1928)
Or, combine any of the plays above. Or, add your own twists. What could go wrong?