As the Bears weigh the decision that could chart the course for the entire NFL offseason, one Hall of Fame quarterback’s advice is to learn from the Giants’ recent mistake.
The Bears must decide whether to stick with quarterback Justin Fields and trade the No. 1 pick in the draft — repeating the decision that they made last year, bypassing top-four picks Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson — or trade Fields and start fresh by drafting Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.
“When you get to the point we are at in this league with quarterbacks — what you have to pay them and what that means for your organization — you better know that he’s the guy,” NFL Network analyst Kurt Warner told a select group of reporters at Super Bowl 2024. “That, to me, is where teams get in trouble.
“The Giants go give $40 million [per year] to Daniel Jones. He hasn’t shown us he’s that guy. We’ve seen glimpses, maybe. The Giants are still behind the 8-ball because he’s still not that guy. Maybe he will be, but he’s not right now — and they paid him.”
Jones made history last offseason by becoming the first quarterback since the implementation of the rookie wage scale in 2011 who had his fifth-year option declined but played his way into signing an extension.
The four-year, $160 million contract included $82 million guaranteed, but also a possible out for the Giants after two seasons because Jones’ dead-cap charge ($22.2 million) if released in 2025 plus a rookie or second-year quarterback’s salary-cap hit still would be less than Jones’ hit ($41.6 million) if on the roster.
The Giants are back in the quarterback market because Jones went 1-5 as a starter and suffered two serious injuries — a second in three years to his neck and a season-ending torn ACL — in a career-worst season.
“I think they soured on that contract a little bit,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid told The Post last month. “I don’t want to say they have any regrets, but I think they know they can’t go into next year with Daniel Jones as their quarterback of the future.”
The Giants hold the No. 6 pick and thus might have to trade up to secure one of the consensus top-three quarterbacks or decide if J.J. McCarthy is a reach — as Jones was considered to be when he was selected No. 6 in 2019.
“Generational prospects in college do not guarantee generational prospects in the NFL,” said Warner, a former Giants quarterback who infamously went undrafted.
Fields and Jones had similar numbers after three seasons.
Fields is 10-28 with an 82.3 quarterback rating and 40 touchdowns and 30 interceptions through the air plus 2,220 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground.
Before Jones’ narrative-shifting fourth season during which the Giants reached the playoffs with a Saquon Barkley-powered offense, his three-year numbers were 12-25 with a 84.3 quarterback rating, 45 touchdowns and 29 interceptions through the air plus 1,000 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
The Giants could’ve signed Barkley to an extension and franchise-tagged Jones (who would now be a free agent) but opted for the opposite, believing the quarterback turned a corner.
Fields is coming off his best season, so there is an argument to let the trajectory continue.
“When you have three years and don’t take out the doubt, I think you have to move on,” Warner said. “You can’t just go pay that guy $50 million in hopes that those glimpses you saw will turn into greatness. It may be unfortunate because some of those guys play too early — they are not ready — but their next contract will be determined by it.
“You have to put in the element of [the Bears] have the No. 1 pick. It’s not as if they have No. 23 and they are just going to go get the next quarterback.”
Fields is due about $3.2 million cash in 2024 and is eligible for the first time to sign a multiyear extension.
If Fields is traded before the draft, his next team would have to decide whether to exercise his fifth-year option for 2025 at about $22 million by May 2, possibly without ever seeing him practice.
The situation is reminiscent of when the Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Panthers after three seasons in order to clear room for drafting Zach Wilson.
The Panthers exercised Darnold’s option, which proved to be a mistake after he was twice benched but still was less costly than if he was extended beyond two years.
The Bears’ partners for Fields could include the Steelers, Falcons, Viking and Raiders.
The Commanders, Patriots and maybe even the Giants could join the sweepstakes if the No. 1 pick becomes available.
