Millions in central US to be pummeled by another multi-day severe weather threat
The spring severe weather season is kicking into high gear, with the FOX Forecast Center tracking the potential for another multiday severe weather threat for millions of people across the central U.S. this week and into the first part of the weekend.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across several locations in the U.S. on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the risk will ramp up as we head into the second half of this workweek.
The southern and central Plains appear to be the target on Thursday, and NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed that region in a Level 2 out of 5 risk on its 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.
The setup on Thursday, however, is different from previous severe weather outbreaks last week.
The FOX Forecast Center said an upper-level disturbance will move into the Southwest by early Thursday. As that piece of energy approaches the central U.S., an area of low pressure will form at the surface and fuel the development of rain and thunderstorms.
Thursday’s severe weather threat extends from south-central Nebraska through central Kansas, western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas.
Hays, Dodge City and Wichita in Kansas will be at risk, as well as Woodward in Oklahoma and Lubbock in Texas.
The SPC said a few supercell thunderstorms could develop and will be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and even some tornadoes.
Severe weather threat shifts east on Friday
The severe weather threat will then pivot to the Missouri Valley and Plains by Friday and will expand in coverage.
Eight states from Texas to Iowa will be in a Level 2 out of 5 risk, which includes major cities like Dallas and Waco in Texas, Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, Kansas City and Springfield in Missouri and Des Moines in Iowa.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be some of the threats associated with thunderstorms that develop. However, the threat of tornadoes may be a bit higher than what is expected on Thursday.
Plains at risk again on Saturday
The severe weather threat will again target the southern and central Plains on Saturday, with portions of North Texas, most of Oklahoma and southern Kansas seeing the highest risk of storms for the first part of the weekend.
The SPC said that daytime heating will allow for storms to develop, and those storms could continue as we get into Saturday evening.
Changes are expected with the forecast, however, as computer forecast models continue to analyze data. Be sure to download the free FOX Weather app and enable notifications to receive important weather alerts and monitor changes to the forecast.
April’s tornadic activity has been above average with 184 reports this month.
May is typically the most active month for tornadoes with an average of 294 twisters, according to the latest historical data from the SPC.
In 2024, the center has received 347 reports of tornadoes, which is more than 10% fewer than an average year to date.
“This past week really solidified us with above-average activity,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar said. “And when you take a look at the month of April, where you typically see tornadic threats, it’s more back off through the Plains. So you look into, say, Texas, portions of Oklahoma, even into parts of the Southeast, the Mississippi River region, but we’ve been seeing much more activity, you know, up across the Ohio Valley. Ohio leads the country with the number of tornadoes.”
Severe weather outbreaks are more common during La Niña events than in El Niño or neutral episodes.
Several climatological organizations consider the Pacific Ocean to be in a neutral status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO.
