Trump leads Biden in all seven swing states, enjoys wider margin with RFK Jr. in race: poll
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in all seven critical swing states and has an even larger margin in most states when also up against independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a new poll shows.
Trump, 77, has the largest margins against Biden, 81, in North Carolina (47-42%), Arizona (48-44%) and Georgia (47-44%), according to the Emerson College poll released Tuesday.
The 45th president leads 45-44% in Michigan and Nevada and 47-45% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
All the state head-to-head polls have an 8% to 11% undecided rate, meaning each party candidate has the potential to win over a wide margin of voters before November.
With third-party candidates added in, the president suffers more than Trump. RFK Jr. takes more votes away from Biden in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, opening up the margin for Trump even wider against Biden.
In Arizona, Kennedy comes in at 9%, and with the addition of Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein (coming in at 2% together), Biden is left with 40% compared to Trump’s 44%. Kennedy is polling at 6% in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, making Biden suffer 37-46%, 41-45% and 40-45%, respectively, with West and Stein polling in the single digits.
Kennedy is also pulling 8% in Nevada and the “other” third-party candidates are getting 3%, making the race 37-42% for Biden. In Georgia and Michigan, RFK Jr. is at 5% and “other” candidates are at No. 5 and 2%, getting the race to 39-45% and 42-43% for Biden.
But the Democrat-turned-independent still has to get on the ballot in all 50 states. So far for those states surveyed by Emerson, Kennedy’s campaign says it has enough signatures to get on the ballot in Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada.
The poll has a 3% credibility interval and was conducted April 25-29 via cellphones and landlines, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The sample size for each state was 1,000 registered voters.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
The Republican lead in the presidential race isn’t transferring to Senate races, the survey shows.
In Arizona, 45% of voters surveyed support Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, amid 43% support for Republican Kari Lake and 12% saying they are undecided. Lake has increased her margin by 4% since February, while Gallego has decreased by 1%.
In the Pennsylvania Senate race, 46% of voters favor incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, 42% support Republican Dave McCormick and 12% are undecided, according to the poll.
Democrats are also leading in the Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina Senate races. In the Badger State, 46% of voters said they would support incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, while 43% support Republican Eric Hovde and 11% were undecided.
In Michigan, 42% said they would vote for Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 40% said Republican Mike Rogers, and 19% were undecided.
In a hypothetical North Carolina matchup, incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen leads 45-37% against Republican Sam Brown, with 18% undecided. With Rosen matched up against Republican Jeff Gunter, Rosen comes in with 47-33%, with 21% undecided.
