For the first time in decades, it feels as if the men’s French Open is genuinely wide open.
Rafael Nadal has ruled this tournament for 20 years.
He owns a 112-3 record at Roland Garros and won 14 titles between 2005 and 2022, but Nadal is about to turn 38 and has been battling injury issues for the better part of two years.
Barring anything unforeseen, this will be the Spaniard’s last French Open, and he is not expected to make a deep run, especially since he drew Alexander Zverev, the fourth favorite, in Round 1.
And it isn’t just Nadal’s status that is opening up this draw.
Novak Djokovic has not been himself in 2024, Carlos Alcaraz’s form has been wobbly and Jannik Sinner, who was unplayable in the first few months of the season, is also battling injuries.
All of this should add up to the most chaotic French Open we’ve seen in quite some time. That makes for terrific betting.
Favorite with the most value
Casper Ruud (12/1, DraftKings)
A back-to-back finalist at Roland Garros and the No. 7 player in the world, Ruud seems to be undervalued a touch in the futures market in Paris. Ruud is in decent form this clay season — he won Barcelona, was a finalist in Monte Carlo and is in the final in Geneva — and has the upside to beat anybody on the dirt.
With this résumé, you would expect Ruud to be priced in the single digits, but he’s drifted a bit because of a tough draw.
Ruud has a tricky opponent in Round 1 (and another likely one, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, in Round 2) and probably will face Djokovic in the quarterfinals, so that path is giving us a good opportunity to back a player who has had good success at Roland Garros.
Great buy
Daniil Medvedev (32/1, FanDuel)
The betting market seems to be leaving Medvedev for dead at Roland Garros because of his history in this tournament.
That would be a logical thing to do if Medvedev was priced as one of the favorites, but this number is ridiculous considering he is the No. 4 player in the world and isn’t just a walkover on clay.
He has been upset at Roland Garros five times and that is not good, but he went to the fourth round in 2022 and was a quarterfinalist in 2021, so it’s not like he just wilts on the clay.
Where most people will point to Medvedev being vulnerable at this tournament, bettors should use that as a good opportunity to buy low on a player who has won a Grand Slam and been to the final five other occasions.
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Live long shot
Hubert Hurkacz (100/1, FanDuel)
Though he’s ranked as the No. 9 player in the world, Hurkacz will be friendless in the betting market at Roland Garros, even at triple-digit prices.
And though his 6-6 record and three first-round exits at the French Open are not pretty, he made a trip to Round 4 in 2022 and Round 3 in 2023.
Those still aren’t eye-popping results, but when you combine them with his 11-3 record on the dirt this season they suggest an improving player on the surface.
More importantly, however, is the fact that Hurkacz got handed a terrific draw.
His path to the quarterfinals, where he likely would need to upset Sinner, is there for the taking and with Sinner’s injury concerns, there is no guarantee he’ll be there waiting for Hurkacz next week.