Betting on information-based markets is hard enough, but this year’s NBA Draft is sure to be one of the most upside-down of any we have seen.
Ringer founder Bill Simmons mentioned on “The Bill Simmons Podcast” on Monday that UConn’s Donovan Clingan could be the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft after talking “to some NBA people the last couple weeks and especially in-person this week.”
With this year’s draft bereft of top talent, Simmons postulates that Clingan is one of the few players that teams feel they can accurately project.
“It feels like he’s the only one in this top five that people are like, ‘I at least know what that guy is,'” Simmons noted.
At the time of the podcast, Clingan was 15/1 on FanDuel to go No. 1 in the 2024 NBA Draft but has since climbed down to +850 odds to be the top player drafted.
The current favorite, French prospect Alexandre Sarr, was initially as high as -300 to be the top pick, but has fallen to -165 as speculation trickles out from insiders in the NBA.
2024 NBA Draft No.1 pick odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alexandre Sarr | -165 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | +150 |
| Donovan Clingan | +850 |
| Reed Sheppard | 50/1 |
| Matas Buzelis | 50/1 |
| Robert Dillingham | 100/1 |
| Stephon Castle | 100/1 |
“I look at Sarr and he didn’t even average 10 points per game in New Zealand,” Simmons continued. “The French swingman, who knows, that guy was in an offensive funk most of the year until the last month.”
Clingan won two national championships with the UConn Huskies, serving as a reserve during the 2023 title run and starring for coach Dan Hurley this past year.
Clingan is best known as a strong rim protector and shot blocker, averaging 2.5 blocks per game, including five against Illinois in the Elite Eight and four against Alabama in the Final Four.
The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor ranks Clingan No. 4 on his big board and compares him to Roy Hibbert, who spent several years as an interior defender for the Indiana Pacers.
The Post’s Brian Lewis still believes it will be Sarr going No. 1 in his latest 2024 NBA Mock Draft, with the 7-feet-2-inch tall Clingan falling to seventh.
However, we’ve seen information-based betting markets tell a major piece of the story in the past.
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In the lead-up to the 2022 NBA Draft, Paulo Banchero was long expected to fall to two or worse, and ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski disagreed with bettors who were slamming Banchero at +600 odds or higher to go No. 1.
Wojnarowski wound up being out-scooped in this case, as bettors claimed a major victory.
There is not always a happy ending, though, as a Reddit thread forced bettors to lay the hammer on Will Levis to go No. 1 overall ahead of Bryce Young in 2023, which did not come to fruition.
We’ve also seen some bizarre habits ahead of this year’s draft. Bronny James is receiving plenty of bets to go No. 1 overall despite being a projected second-round pick, according to most mock drafts.