Trump’s VP pick will have little impact on voters’ choice for president, despite fevered speculation: Post poll
Donald Trump’s upcoming vice-presidential pick attracts attention and speculation daily. If a new poll for The Post is any indication, it’s likely to be much ado about nothing.
The poll, conducted by YouGov, asked respondents a host of questions about Trump’s possible picks.
It also asked whether his selection might affect their chances of voting for Trump and what criteria they’d like the former president to consider when making his choice.
Republicans and independents who do not lean toward the Democrats want someone who’s “a good public speaker,” is conservative and has political experience.
They also prefer a pick who’s “loyal to Trump,” although that inclination is more pronounced among Republicans than independents.
None of this is particularly shocking. Would anyone expect Trump to select a tongue-tied, moderate novice who has criticized him?
Virtually every person who’s been rumored to be on his short list easily meets all four criteria.
All the well-known names on his purported list also seem likely to be well received by his supporters. Large pluralities of respondents would approve of Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Ben Carson or Marco Rubio.
Lesser- known candidates such as Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance are still supported by smaller pluralities, with majorities saying they are “not sure.”
Almost everyone on Trump’s list comes with either mild positives or no problematic negatives.
Nikki Haley, however, does not. She is the only person polled who elicits more opposition (39%) than support (33%).
That feeling is shared by independents, who disapprove of her by a 37-23 margin, and 2020 Trump voters, who oppose her 48-38.
Someone who hurts you with your base and doesn’t attract the center is not a good choice.
None of the potential picks has a deep hold on Trump’s voters.
DeSantis leads when respondents were asked who they prefer, but only 11% chose Trump’s former foe. Fully 26% said they were not sure. Pretty much anyone Trump picks will be accepted by his backers.
It’s also clear that selection won’t really matter to voters anyway. Sixty-two percent said the pick would have no effect on their vote, while only 10% of respondents said the pick’s identity could make them more or less likely to vote for Trump.
That tiny number drops to 8% among 2020 Trump voters, fewer than the 13% who said any pick could only make them more likely to vote for him.
That’s not too surprising, as poorly received vice-presidential picks have never proven to cost their running mates many votes.
George H.W. Bush’s choice, Dan Quayle, was immediately perceived as young, callow and out of his depth.
Yet Bush easily beat his Democratic opponent, Michael Dukakis, coming from a 17-point deficit when he picked Quayle to win by nearly 8 points.
Even Sarah Palin, the most widely panned recent pick, didn’t cost John McCain many votes.
McCain’s erratic behavior when the stock market crashed did much more to cost him his shot at the White House than anything the beleaguered Palin said or did.
Presidential elections may be fought as a ticket, but ultimately voters decide to choose the person at the top.
Who the vice president is matters a lot to the future of the country, especially now given the advanced ages of the two presumptive nominees.
But for average voters, it’s another inside-baseball talking point. Trump should just pick the person he feels most comfortable with and get on with the rest of the campaign.
Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
