Historian who accurately predicts elections urges Democrats not to dump Biden: ‘Could not be more misguided’
A presidential historian who has accurately predicted the result of nine of the last 10 elections implored Democratic Party leaders once again Monday not to dump President Biden after his catastrophic debate performance — and chastised members of the media for harping on his diminished cognitive acuity.
“They could not be more misguided,” American University history professor Allan Lichtman said on “CNN News Central” after having made the same assessment Friday night on the cable network.
“Remember, all the pundits, you know, watched Hillary Clinton win three debates in 2016,” Lichtman added. “They all said Trump was finished after ‘Access Hollywood.’ And they are so often wrong.”
The presidential prognosticator then waved away concerns about the 81-year-old president’s mental fitness.
“In terms of Biden’s capacities, I’m not a neurologist. They are not neurologists. They have no standing to comment on that,” Lichtman said before echoing the White House and top Democrats’ spin: “I would only say far better to judge Biden by three and three-quarter years or so of his presidency than 90 minutes.”
The professor’s prediction system has guessed the winner of every presidential race but one since 1984 based on 13 “Keys to the White House,” which are: incumbency, party mandate, contest, third party, long-term economy, short-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, and foreign/military success.
“Biden ticks off the incumbency key, and he ticks off the party contest key,” Lichtman explained on CNN. “You push him out, you lose the incumbency key, and you lose the contest key. So, instead of starting two keys up and having six more keys to fold and predict the Democrats’ defeat, they start two keys down and only four more keys would have to fall.”
A major political party candidate has “never” won re-election in the event of “an uncertain or contested nomination” since before the 20th century, Lichtman also noted Monday.
Lichtman developed an algorithm to estimate the electoral victor based on the keys in the early 1980s with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and got into the prognostication business by correctly predicting Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election landslide over Walter Mondale.
Lichtman’s string was broken in 2000, when he correctly predicted that then-Vice President Al Gore would win the popular vote, only for George W. Bush to win the Electoral College and the election.
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The historian — who has yet to make a final 2024 prediction based on his electoral keys — went on to accuse CNN co-anchors John Berman and Sara Sidner of being “complicit in Donald Trump lying and conning his way to the presidency” by giving airtime to questions about Biden’s mental fitness.
First lady Jill Biden had also been quick to call out Trump’s “lies” following the debate, deflecting from her husband’s stumbling and spaced-out performance.
The first family retreated to Camp David Sunday to reassess Biden’s political future, according to the New York Times, with many blaming aides for having over-prepared the aging patriarch, who would be 86 years old at the end of a potential second term in the Oval Office.
First son Hunter Biden was reportedly the most adamant that his father — who he maintains is “scrappy and in command of the facts” — remain in the race.
What to know about the calls for President Biden to drop out of the 2024 race:
- President Biden’s poor performance in the first 2024 presidential debate left some Democrats unsure of his fitness for office and future as the party’s candidate.
- More than a dozen congressional Democrats have joined in calling for Biden’s exit from the race. Former Biden supporter George Clooney echoed these calls in an op-ed published in the New York Times just weeks after he helped lead a record-breaking fundraiser for the Democrat.
- Democratic voters have continued to raise concerns about Biden’s nomination since the debate, with speculations and suggestions for replacement nominees running rampant.
- Biden’s former running mate Barack Obama has reportedly been trying to pressure him to drop out, and had prior knowledge of Clooney’s op-ed. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi allegedly told Biden he could not beat former President Donald Trump this time around.
- As the Democratic National Convention approaches, California delegates for the Democratic Party are reportedly in disarray as debate over the president’s chances of re-election threatens to tear the party apart.
- However, the Biden campaign has denied any plans for Biden to bow out and for Kamala Harris to step in as the Democratic nominee. Sources close to the president believe he might not be willing to drop out, while other sources claim he is “receptive” to giving up on a second term.
At least 72% of respondents in a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday said they don’t think Biden has the “mental and cognitive health necessary to serve as president.”
Among Democrats, 41% agreed with that assessment.
But unless the elder Biden voluntarily steps aside, there is no easy path to replacing him on the Democratic ticket.
The president’s team has already committed to a second planned debate against Trump in September.
