Quarterbacks are the jumbo shrimp of fantasy football.
The strategy for drafting them in fantasy is the parking in a driveway to real-life’s driving on a parkway.
It is backward, upside down. It’s like wearing a tie-dyed tee to church, or dress shoes to the theme park, or a cummerbund to a barbecue.
The problem is this: There are enough useable quarterbacks to go around in most leagues.
And with top QBs going off the board as early as the second or third round, if you take one there, you are chasing the running back and wide receiver positions for the rest of your draft.
When you do that, you’re dressing your team poorly.
The best QBs simply cost too much. Drafting one that early is like buying a souvenir T-shirt. Despite the hefty price, it falls apart as soon as you wash it.
Maybe your overly expensive QB won’t fall apart, but drafting one high increases the likelihood the rest of your roster could shrink upon the first wash.
So Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes — we head into a draft knowing they are out of reach.
They’re staying on the draft shelf. Let someone else fall for that fantasy tourist trap.
We’re comfortable playing the waiting game.
If we happen to get off to a strong start at RB and WR, then, maybe, perhaps, we could look at Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott in rounds 6-7, maybe.
These are still overpriced tourist fare, but not as overpriced, and the stronger material the rest of your draft is built with could give them some extra life.
But again, it is OK to wait because chances are Jordan Love will be there a round or two later. Or Kyler Murray.
The souvenirs keep getting cheaper, and the roster material keeps getting stronger. Sure, the design isn’t quite as flashy, and maybe the other ones look better in the mirror, but these middle-round options can still help build a really nice fantasy outfit.
Miss out on all of these guys?
No fear, there are plenty more still here. In fact, there are enough decent ones that we’re looking to grab two.
That way we can platoon based on whoever has the best matchup or the hot hand.
Now, granted, there is more inherent risk the deeper you go in the draft at any position.
There are fewer sure things, and even the surest of things this deep in the draft doesn’t come with a high level of “sure.”
Fantasy Football DVQ Explainer
Hop out of the pool, unpack your vacation suitcase, boot up your laptop and get ready, because fantasy football season is back.
The Fantasy Madman has returned with the latest iteration of his DVQ.
The Draft Value Quotient is a player rating system that assigns one universal number for every player. This value projects the point in the draft at which a player’s projected production will match the estimated draft pick value.
Since there is a wider separation among production at the top, so too is there a wider gap between DVQ values at the top of the rankings.
The player projections takes into account playing time, expected use/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance and injury history. The DVQ measures these projections against a player’s schedule and factors in positional depth and value above replacement.
These ratings are updated regularly.
So having a backup is a good insurance policy in case one of our late picks goes belly-up.
Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, we’re OK with any of these guys. In a given week, we feel like we can start them.
We’re even willing to go back to the Aaron Rodgers well again.
We’re not at all worried about his recovery form an Achilles injury, and we’re only marginally worried about his age.
What worries us most is the fact he has no track record with the Jets, and worse, this Jets coaching staff has no history of producing productive QBs.
Then why draft him? Because worries aren’t the same as warnings. Plus … discount!
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For those fantasy managers agnostic enough to stomach the pick, Deshaun Watson could actually deliver value at his deep ADP (156.5).
But be warned, it is the fantasy equivalent of walking into an elementary school with a vulgar T-shirt. It just makes you feel icky and embarrassed.
Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, all these guys are solid and basically free.
Perfect for a QB2 spot on your roster and ready to slide into a starting spot at any time. And we would put rookie Jayden Daniels in this group.
So, don’t go souvenir shopping for an expensive QB.
Wait until late before you tee up your QB pick.