Team USA narrowly escaped with its life in the semifinal match against Serbia on Thursday, winning 95-91.
After opening as 17.5-point favorites against Serbia, sharps bet them down to +15.5 by game time (we got them at +16), and they nearly upset the goliath Americans in a 95-91 slugfest.
Thursday’s semifinal felt like Game 7 of the NBA Finals and, honestly, was probably the real gold medal match.
France, while profiling as a team with a lot of size and strength, lacks the versatility that a Nikola Jokic brings them.
Give Victor Wembanyama four more years before we start anointing him, the newly “Chosen One.”
He and guard Evan Fournier are highly unlikely to be able to lead their way to victory against Team USA.
USA opened as 12-point favorites against France, but sharp bettors have skyrocketed that number, moving it to 16 points at the time of writing.
USA is -1600 to win the gold medal on Saturday.
USA vs. France prediction
Serbia at one point was 15-for-29 from 3-point range and ended the game 15-for-39 from beyond the arc.
Non-coincidentally, Serbia blew a 15-point lead during that 0-10 stretch.
When the 3-point shots dry up, who do you go to?
The answer for France should be to play a lot of Rudy Gobert and Wembanyama down the stretch and see if the two towering big men can carry them to victory.
Two bets intrigue me here, the first being the game totals under, as we could expect plenty of hard-nosed, physical defense with a very favorable whistle to the home-country French and tough shot-making circumstances.
Look for France also to cover this spread against the United States as the line has gotten out of whack at 16, there should be some buyback here on the line.
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The French aren’t as good as Serbia, but that doesn’t mean either team should be 16-point underdogs in this physical play-style that the Olympics breeds.
PICK(S): France (+16) | Under 176.5 (-110)