The PGA Tour turns its attention this week to the FedEx St. Jude Championship — the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs.
Even though this is a limited field, there are some enticing odds on the betting board given how much win equity Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are soaking up at the top.
TPC Southwind in Shelby County, Tenn., is a par-70 course that measures 7,243 yards.
The winning score has been between -13 and -16 in each of the last five years, ranking it around tour average.
The main defense of the course is the number of water hazards (in play on 11 of the 18 holes).
Golfers need to be accurate off the tee and on approach shots to avoid water.
The fairways here are narrow (29 yards wide) and the greens are very small (4,300 square feet).
Driving distance won’t be at a premium, and hitting fairways will be more important than at most events.
The small greens emphasize approach play and scrambling.
Here are my best outright bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship:
Patrick Cantlay (25/1, BetMGM)
Cantlay hasn’t had the best season by his standards, but he seems to be trending in the right direction.
He posted back-to-back top-five finishes at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship and then finished T25 at The Open.
While his track record at the majors leaves much to be desired, he’s played his best in the FedExCup Playoffs.
He won two playoff events in 2021, the BMW Championship in 2022 and finished runner-up at this event last year.
I’ll take a chance on an elite golfer who loves this time of year and who seems to have turned a corner with his form.
Tom Kim (33/1, BetMGM)
Expectations were high for Kim entering the season.
While he hasn’t won this year, he’s been a consistent cut-maker who has flashed upside recently, finishing in the top eight in three of his last eight starts.
During that stretch, he has consistently gained off the tee and on approach.
He’s one of the most accurate drivers in the world, and Southwind’s small greens will help his iron play shine.
Few courses on tour are better suited for Kim’s skill set.
In his two appearances at this event, he has finished T24 and T13.
Sungjae Im (40/1, FanDuel)
Im has been playing his best golf of the year, posting top-12 finishes in eight of his last 11 events.
During that stretch, he has gained more than two strokes off the tee five times and more than 3.5 strokes on approach five times.
When you combine that ball striking with his short game, there’s a clear path for him to win one of these playoff events.
He has a great track record on par-70 courses with Bermuda greens and has finished T6 and T12 at this event in the last two years.
This is my biggest outright bet of the week, as the odds seem too good to be true.
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Billy Horschel (45/1, BetMGM)
It would typically be hard to see Horschel win an event that features the likes of Scheffler, Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, but he did it at the Memorial Tournament in 2022 and nearly did it a few weeks ago at The Open Championship.
One of the streakiest golfers on tour, Horschel backed up his runner-up at The Open with a T7 at last week’s Wyndham Championship.
He loves Bermuda greens and has five top-10 finishes at this event in his career.
He’s a golfer who can gain strokes in all facets of his game, which is likely why he’s had so much success at Southwind in the past.