How RFK Jr. dropping out could have ‘massive impact’ in key battleground states
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign could shake up election results in key battleground states — as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are polling neck-and-neck in the fight to get to 270 electoral votes in any way possible.
Kennedy is polling at an average of 5% nationally, according to RealClearPolitics. The relatively small amount of support would be enough to impact the race on its face as it stands, but it depends on which candidate those voters would choose as their second-choice pick — and whether they even turn out.
The independent now ex-candidate — whose family’s lengthy legacy in Democratic politics has carried major political weight for decades — had previously garnered support from both Republicans and Democrats at about an equal amount, according to the polls.
His support hit a big crater after President Biden suspended his bid and endorsed Harris, with Kennedy dropping and Harris climbing — indicating that at least some Kennedy supporters may have jumped to the vice president’s campaign.
The Harris rise was enough to bother Donald Trump Jr., who helped broker talks with Kennedy’s team to secure an endorsement of his father. Kennedy on Friday said he “could not in good conscience” continue his campaign now that he has proven to be more of a vote-splitter than actual contender.
The Kennedy factor will ultimately be determined by how many of his supporters decide to vote for Trump — and how forceful his endorsement will be — instead of sitting out the election or voting for Harris.
His late pullout could also lead to his name remaining on state ballots, so voters could still choose him.
Pollsters who spoke with The Post split over the ramifications of the Kennedy scion’s exit, from predicting it would have “a massive impact” to dismissing it a a “non-issue” in November.
“Most of Kennedy’s left-leaning support had already dispersed to Harris,” Dave Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told The Post. “So this could represent a meaningful benefit for Trump.”
“We’re talking probably a fraction of a point in our survey from August in battleground states,” Wasserman went on, listing the breakdowns. “Forty-six percent of RFK supporters went with Trump in a two-way race, 26% went with Harris and Kennedy’s support had collapsed from 8% to 5% nationally.”
“Campaigns would spend hundreds of millions of dollars for a fraction of a point given how tight the margins are in these battleground states,” he said, pointing to the margins of victory in the 2020 election being beneath 1% in Georgia and Arizona.
“RFKs endorsement won’t move all his supporters to Trump,” Wasserman added. “We’re in a very volatile environment right now and it could remain that way through the election.”
“It’s certainly tough to imagine a more favorable news environment than the one that Kamala Harris has enjoyed the past month, which is a reason to be cautious about her standing in the race,” he also said. “She’s still a far cry from where the Biden-Harris ticket was polling at this point four years ago.”
Cygnal pollster Chris Lane said his right-of-center outfit’s most recent national survey showed “among swing voters who will ultimately decide this election, 16% indicated they were going to vote for RFK.”
“With margins in battleground states being razor-thin, that 16% could represent the difference between winning and losing a state,” Lane pointed out. “If RFK encourages his supporters to vote for Trump, it could have a massive impact and change the calculus for both Trump and Harris, especially in battleground states.”
“Add in the fact that those 16% are more center-right than anything, and will ultimately add to Trump’s ballot share,” he added. “Our data shows 4:1, these swing voters were more likely to call themselves conservatives than liberals.”
Scott Rasmussen, founder of the public opinion firms RMG Research and Rasmussen Reports, said recent polling indicates a “slight” benefit to Trump.
“RMG Research polling for the Napolitan Institute this week showed Harris up 2 points 48% to 46% with RFK in the mix at 3%. When we pushed the RFK voters to make a choice, the race was tied at 49% at 49%,” he said.
“While that suggests a slight boost for Trump, there are many other things that could have a bigger impact on the race — especially the debate and economic trends.
“However, in recent years, we’ve had the Electoral College winner determined by a relative handful of votes in a few swing states,” Rasmussen continued. “If that happens again, any blip in support from RFK voters could be important.”
The opinion was not unanimous that Trump would benefit from the former Democrat’s support.
“I think the endorsement is worth one vote,” Ipsos president of public affairs Cliff Young said. “Those that still support him probably wouldn’t even vote.”
“They’re kind of that mushy middle, those undecideds, and the rest of them who would vote probably splits basically evenly between the two,” Young said.
“He has a slightly lower ceiling than the two Democrats,” the pollster added, referring to Trump’s base of support when compared with Biden, who suspended his re-election effort July 21, and Harris, who was formally nominated as her party’s candidate this week.
Young said coming out of the Democratic National Convention the main effect on public polling will be the candidates’ ability to address “the key issues, especially inflation.”
Here is a breakdown of how the battlegrounds stood before Kennedy dropped:
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State is the coveted gem for Trump and Harris. At 19 electoral votes, winning the state would give a big boost to either campaign.
Kennedy exiting the race would positively impact Trump in Pennsylvania, according to RCP.
With RFK Jr. in the race, the scales tip in Harris’ favor by 2% with her coming in at 46.3%, Trump getting 43.3% and Kennedy at 4.4%.
But in a head-to-head, Trump (47.7%) edges out Harris (47.5%) by .2%.
Arizona
The former president also has the same .2% advantage in Arizona — where the announcement is taking place Thursday — with Kennedy dropping, per RCP.
Kennedy is pulling 5.8% in the state compared to Harris’ 45% and Trump’s 44.4%.
With his suspension, the race puts Trump (47.3%) over Harris (47.1%) with the small margin.
Michigan and Wisconsin
The Midwest battleground states don’t change their ultimate winner based on Kennedy’s presence in the race.
Both Michigan and Wisconsin have Harris coming out on top in both scenarios per RCP, but her lead is diminished in both states with Kennedy out.
Harris (46.3%) has a 1.7% lead over Trump (44.6%) with Kennedy in the race in Wisconsin — which diminishes to 1% with him out and his 5.1% support being split up between Trump (47.6%) and Harris (48.6).
In Michigan, Harris leads by 1.7% in a three-way race with Trump at 43.1%, her at 45.5% and Kennedy at 5.9%, but only leads by 1% in a head-to-head between herself (48.6%) and Trump (46.6%), per the outlet.
Nevada and Georgia
In both Nevada and Georgia, Trump benefits slightly more with Kennedy in the race, but still keeps his lead in a two-way race.
Nevada has Trump at 45.3% and Harris at 43%, while Kennedy averages 5.3%. A two-way race has Trump at 47.3% and the vice president at 46%.
In Georgia, Trump’s lead drops .7% with a two-way race with Harris instead of the three-way including Kennedy. With Kennedy in, Trump gets 46% compared to Harris’ 44.3% and Kennedy’s 4.%.
With him out, Trump comes in at 48.1% and Harris gets 47.1%.
