Nearly a third of Muslim-American voters back Trump — up 7 points from 2020: poll
Former President Donald Trump’s standing among Muslim-American voters has notably improved from four years ago, according to a new poll.
Trump, 78, would have the support of 30% of Muslim voters if the 2024 election were held today, compared with the 23% he earned against Joe Biden four years ago, according to a survey by the Rainey Center, a self-described “post partisan” public policy research nonprofit.
Vice President Kamala Harris would receive 62% of the Muslim vote, according to the survey, which drew from a sample that was 49% registered Democrats, 28% registered independents and 18% registered Republicans.
Three-fifths of those polled (60%) said they broke for Biden in 2020.
The Rainey Center poll was commissioned by the Muslim American Leadership Alliance, an organization that aims to uplift Muslim Americans.
“We wanted to better understand where Muslim Americans stand on several key issues,” Zainab Khan, MALA’s executive director explained in a statement. “Unfortunately there is often a monolithic narrative framing our community’s concerns, which is far more heterodox that past polls with a far-left bias have suggested.”
Khan added: “Our poll findings indicate that Muslim Americans much more nuanced in their outlook than is typically appreciated. A significant bloc of Muslims lean Republican, and even across party lines there are major concerns about illegal immigration, crime, and the economy.”
A hypothetical six-way race shows Harris losing support compared to Biden four years ago, with 56% of Muslims voting for her, 25% voting for Trump, 3% voting for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 1% voting for independent candidate Cornel West.
Before Biden exited the race on July 21, the incumbent was losing to Trump among Middle Eastern, North African and Muslim voters, according to a Siena College/New York Times poll from May.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got 5% of the Muslim vote, though he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump on the first day that the Rainey survey was in the field.
The former Democrat has sued to get off the ballot in critical swing states in order to help Trump, while Stein has already secured her place on the ballot in six of the seven critical battlegrounds: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
West is currently only on the ballot in Wisconsin and North Carolina.
The Muslim voters surveyed were most concerned about the economy and crime when considering their top election issue.
Majorities were also “extremely” or “very” concerned about “rising transgender medical treatments for minors” (51%), “the rise of the far-right ‘MAGA’ ideology” (51%), the “erosion of parental rights in American public education” (53%) and the “teaching of sexually explicit materials to children in public schools” (61%).
Still, on every single issue polled, either a majority or a plurality said that the Democratic Party expressed their view of things more closely than the Republican Party.
That included opinions on foreign policy, with 65% saying they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about the war between Israel and Hamas.
More than four in five (82%) said they are “definitely” or “probably” voting Nov. 5, 15% said they are on the fence and 3% said they “probably” won’t show up to the polls.
Half of the respondents (50%) also identified as cultural Muslims rather than observant Muslims, and a plurality (44%) described their political views as moderate.
The Rainey Center poll surveyed 600 self-identified Muslim respondents via web panels Aug. 23-29.
The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.8%.
