Thanks largely to a disastrous outing by Marcus Stroman on Wednesday, the Yankees still have much to play for in their series finale with the Orioles as they look to finalize an AL East title as well as the league’s top playoff seed.
Thursday night’s game will feature a playoff-caliber pitching matchup, as two former Cy Young award winners, Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes and New York’s Gerrit Cole, take the mound for a 7:05 p.m. start in the Bronx.
Despite winning the first two games of the series, the Orioles are still four games in back of the Yankees, who can wrap up the division with a win on Thursday.
Let’s take a look at the matchup and offer up a prediction and pick.
Yankees vs. Orioles odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | +124 | +1.5 (-175) | o7.5 (-110) |
| Yankees | -148 | -1.5 (+145) | u7.5 (-110) |
Orioles vs. Yankees prediction
Chances are that Wednesday’s loss won’t hurt the Yankees in the grand scheme of things, but Stroman struggled again in replacing Nestor Cortes, who was a late scratch while being placed on the 15-day IL with an elbow strain.
Cortes’ status certainly leaves question marks surrounding New York’s starting rotation ahead of the playoffs.
The Yankees and their faithful will feel much better if Cole — just a year removed from winning the American League Cy Young award — can continue his strong run by looking like a true ace in this important matchup.
In nine starts since the beginning of August, Cole has pitched to an ERA of 2.53 with an xFIP of 3.87. He holds a K-BB% of 18.9 and a Stuff+ rating of 110 in that span with an average fastball of 96 mph. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a batting average of just .182 and an xBA of .196.
The Yankees’ bullpen continues to look like it could be a difference-maker in the postseason. Over the last 30 days, the team’s relievers have a combined ERA of 3.29 and a fourth-ranked 3.43 xFIP.
Burnes looks to be trending into better form after an ugly month of August tanked any hopes of him becoming just the seventh pitcher to win a Cy Young in both leagues.
In four September starts, the former Brewers ace has pitched to an ERA of 1.08 with a WHIP of 1.00. He holds an xFIP of 3.76 in 25 innings of work this month, allowing an xBA of .227.
Burnes has a Stuff+ rating of 130 over his last four outings, which is up considerably from his season-long mark.
Baltimore’s offense has cooled off considerably of late. It had been dominant the entire season, but over the last month, the Orioles own a wRC+ of 97 and a 16th-ranked wRC+ of 99 versus right-handers. They have struck out 24.1% of the time against righties this month but have made a lot of hard contact (35.5% hard-hit rate).
This month, the Yankees own a wRC+ of 99 and 104 versus righties (No. 13).
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Orioles vs. Yankees pick
Looking to be trending into top form ahead of the postseason, both starters on Thursday could force this matchup into a gritty playoff-type affair.
Even with a total of 7.5, I still see value backing the under at anything better than -115.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.