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Swing States 2024
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Swing States 2024

Is battleground Florida back? Donald Trump, Rick Scott down to narrow leads in poll

By
A.G. Gancarski
Published Sep. 30, 2024, 3:32 p.m. ET

Florida was the ultimate swing state in previous election cycles, and new polling suggests 2024 may be a return to form.

A Florida-based Victory Insights survey released Monday shows both the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and the senatorial race between GOP incumbent Sen. Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell too close to call.

These are especially remarkable numbers given that Florida’s Republicans outnumber its Democrats by more than 1 million in registered voter rolls.

Former President Donald Trump addressing local officials and affected residents at Chez What Furniture Store, which was damaged in Hurricane Helene, in Valdosta, Georgia.
According to one recent poll, former President Donald Trump’s lead in Florida is declining. Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) holding a microphone, addressing Bay County residents about Hurricane Helene at the Emergency Operations Center
Sen. Rick Scott, formerly Florida governor, addressed Bay County residents last week about Hurricane Helene. Tyler Orsburn/News Herald / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With rounding, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45%, with 8% undecided. Scott leads his Dem opponent 45% to 44%, with 12% undecided.

Both races have dynamics keeping them close and potentially unpredictable down the stretch.

The pollster notes the “overwhelming majority” of undecideds between Trump and Harris lack a party affiliation at all.

But Scott’s problem is with Republicans. While Trump can count on 94% of GOP registrants, only 88% of then say they back Scott’s re-election. Worth noting: The senator had less than 85% support in last month’s primary against two protest candidates, so the number tracks with electoral performance.

As for Mucarsel-Powell, only 65% of voters know who she is, and she’s pulling 26% approval and 25% disapproval among them even as vote by mail is already underway.

U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell sharing a laugh with state representatives Rita Harris and Orange County clerk Tiffany Moore Russell during a campaign stop in Orlando, Florida, 2024
Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (center) was unseated from the House in 2020 by Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez. AP

While voters may not know much of the Democrat in this race, Scott has the opposite problem: They know him all too well. The senator and former two-term governor has 32% approval against 43% disapproval.

Further data in the survey suggest Gov. Ron DeSantis and two of his big November priorities are in trouble.

The governor is actually treading water here with 45% approval and 45% disapproval, a remarkable decline from his nearly 60% approval in 2022.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaking at a press briefing about Hurricane Helene at the Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approval has dipped from 60% to 45%. REUTERS

And two constitutional amendments he opposes look likely to pass.

Amendment 3, which would legalize possession of three ounces of cannabis flower and five grams of concentrate, has 54% support, with 29% against and 17% undecided. If roughly a third of that last category backs the amendment, it will get the 60% support it needs to pass. 

DeSantis’ work to kill it hasn’t had much effect, it seems: 39% of GOP voters back it, with 43% opposed.

Amendment 4, which would roll back state abortion bans passed since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, has 50% support with 29% against and 21% of respondents undecided. Only 23% of Republicans back the measure, which would invalidate Florida’s current abortion prohibition after six weeks of pregnancy in all but exceptional cases.